Tariff Impact Tracker

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

The introduction of U.S. automotive import tariffs in April 2025, colloquially known as "Liberation Day" tariffs, has introduced significant cost headwinds for Tesla, particularly regarding its battery supply chain and manufacturing components. While Tesla manufactures its U.S. vehicle fleet domestically, it remains heavily dependent on imports for critical materials including automotive glass, printed circuit boards, and battery cells from China, Mexico, and Canada. The 25% tariff on imported parts, which became effective in May 2025, contributed to a direct cost headwind exceeding $500M in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone.

The financial impact has been most acute in Tesla's Energy Generation and Storage segment, where the outsized reliance on battery cells procured from China has pressured margins. Although the company reported some one-time relief and "tariff recognitions" of over $250M in the first quarter of 2026 for previously paid duties, management maintains that the sustained tariff regime continues to add to automotive costs and creates "margin compression" across the business. The broader trade policy uncertainty contributed to a 3% decline in total revenue for FY2025, as the company balanced higher input costs against the need to offer customer incentives to maintain delivery volumes.

Tesla is aggressively pursuing vertical integration and supply chain localization to mitigate long-term tariff exposure. The company has announced the construction of a "Terafab" research and production semiconductor facility at its Giga Texas campus, an initiative specifically designed to address "geopolitical risks" and ensure a domestic supply of AI chips and memory for its autonomous vehicle and robotics programs. Additionally, the ramp-up of in-house lithium and cathode refineries in Texas and the transition toward 4680 cell production in Giga Berlin are intended to reduce reliance on external suppliers subject to trade volatility.

The company's strategic pivot toward a software-driven, autonomous business model—headlined by the Cybercab and Optimus robot—is partly intended to shift the revenue mix away from hardware sales that are vulnerable to component tariff fluctuations. By emphasizing Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions and "transportation as a service," Tesla aims to maximize high-margin recurring revenue that remains largely unaffected by physical trade barriers, though the initial capital expenditure for the underlying AI infrastructure remains elevated.

Tariff Impact Summary

Source: Annual Report FY-2025, Transcript FY-2025, Marvin Labs. Figures for 2Q and 3Q are estimated based on management's 4Q disclosure.

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $2.0B–$2.9B
• Cost Impact (Historic): $1.0B–$1.5B
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $2.0B–$2.5B

Sources

This improvement came despite the impact of lower fixed cost absorption and the impact of tariffs, which were in excess of $500mn in Q4.

However, we expect margin compression from the increased low-cost competition, impacts to market from policy uncertainty, and the cost of tariffs.

I think we need to have more fab capacity in the U.S., just in case, you know, chips don't stop arriving for any reason. But, you know, this, this is, this is really existential for, for Tesla.

Analysis

Meta Platforms has experienced material financial and operational headwinds resulting from the "Liberation Day" and reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. These impacts are primarily felt through increased technical infrastructure costs and reduced advertising demand from Asia-based e-commerce exporters.

The most direct impact is observed in the company's capital expenditures and infrastructure operational costs. In April 2025, Meta revised its FY2025 CapEx guidance upward by $4B-$7B, specifically attributing the increase to higher infrastructure hardware costs and uncertainty surrounding ongoing trade discussions. These higher costs stem from suppliers sourcing components globally, which are now subject to the baseline and reciprocal tariffs. This inflationary pressure on hardware has persisted, contributing to a 20% year-over-year increase in cost of revenue for FY2025, reaching $36.2B.

On the revenue side, Meta has faced headwinds from the termination of the "de minimis" exemption, which coincided with the broader tariff implementation. This policy shift significantly impacted the business models of Asia-based e-commerce exporters, a group that includes major China-based advertisers who accounted for 10% of Meta's total revenue in 2023. Management has noted that ad spend from these advertisers fell below pre-April 2025 levels. While Meta has attempted to mitigate this by redirecting ad demand to other markets and optimizing its supply chain, the net impact remains a drag on top-line growth.

Looking ahead, Meta's infrastructure investment trajectory continues to reflect elevated cost assumptions. The company has guided FY2026 CapEx to a range of $115B-$135B, a substantial increase from the $69.7B spent in 2025. This massive scale-up is driven by the necessity of building AI capacity (Meta Superintelligence Labs) while navigating a trade environment characterized by high effective tariff rates on imported technology components. To manage the capital intensity, Meta has begun exploring alternative financing structures, including data center joint ventures, which could move some of these costs off-balance sheet in future years.

Data

Capital Expenditure and Cost Trends

($B)

Source: Company filings, guidance, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $1.0B–$3.0B
• Cost Impact (Historic): $4.0B–$7.0B

Sources

The higher costs we expect to incur for infrastructure hardware this year really comes from suppliers who source from countries around the world. There is just a lot of uncertainty around this given the ongoing trade discussions.

We have seen some reduced spend in the U.S. from Asia-based e-commerce exporters... overall spend for those advertisers is below the levels prior to April.

In 2023, revenue from China-based advertisers represented 10% of our overall revenue and contributed 5 percentage points to total worldwide revenue growth.

Analysis

Microsoft’s exposure to the tariffs enacted on April 2, 2025, is primarily concentrated within its More Personal Computing segment, which includes Surface hardware and Xbox consoles. The company’s core enterprise software and Azure cloud businesses remain largely insulated from direct import levies, as software services are not subject to traditional trade tariffs and the administration initially excluded semiconductors (including GPUs) from the reciprocal tariff lists. This exemption was a critical mitigation factor, as GPUs represent the single largest component of Microsoft’s multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure investments.

The primary impact observed to date has been a significant volatility in hardware revenue driven by customer and channel partner behavior. In the quarters immediately preceding the April 2025 enactment (2Q25 and 3Q25), Microsoft reported that Windows OEM and devices revenue exceeded expectations by 3-4% as partners aggressively built inventory to avoid anticipated tariffs. This pull-forward of demand created a subsequent revenue "hangover" in the 2026 fiscal year. By 2Q26, revenue in the More Personal Computing segment declined 3% year-over-year to $14.3B, with Windows OEM and Devices revenue nearly flat, a sharp deceleration from the 9% growth recorded in FY2025.

On the cost side, Microsoft has navigated the tariffs through a combination of supply chain adjustments and strategic CapEx management. Although the company reportedly paused or refined some data center investments globally in April 2025 as tariffs compounded broader economic pressure, infrastructure spending has since resumed at record levels. In 2Q26, capital expenditures reached $37.5B, driven by overwhelming demand for AI capacity. Management has noted that while tariffs create localized cost pressures on physical devices, Microsoft’s AI and efficiency software products may actually benefit from higher demand as corporate clients seek to automate and optimize their operations to offset their own rising tariff-related costs.

Looking forward, Microsoft continues to guide for volatility in its hardware business. For FY2026, the company anticipates continued declines in Windows OEM and devices revenue as the channel normalizes following the pre-tariff inventory builds. Additionally, broader supply chain factors, such as increased memory pricing, are expected to create ongoing gross margin pressure for both the devices business and the Microsoft Cloud segment as hardware assets are depreciated over time.

Data

Source: 3Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary, FY-2025 Earnings Call Summary, 2Q-2026 Earnings Summary (Full Note)

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $30M–$430M
• Revenue Impact (Forward-Looking): $1.2B–$1.7B

Sources

Windows OEM and devices revenue increased 3% year-over-year, ahead of expectations, as tariff uncertainty through the quarter resulted in inventory levels that remained elevated.

Software might help companies respond in the event that their costs go up because of tariffs.

Windows OEM and devices revenue increased 4% year over year... driven by commercial inventory builds... as well as uncertainty around tariffs.

Analysis

Amazon successfully navigated the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025 (often termed the "Liberation Day" tariffs) through a combination of proactive inventory management and strategic supply chain diversification. In the first quarter of 2025, the company recorded approximately $1.1B in one-time charges, a portion of which was specifically attributed to "pulling forward" inventory to stay ahead of the anticipated tariff implementation. This strategy allowed Amazon to secure product at pre-tariff prices, mitigating the immediate cost shock to its retail business.

Management reported that the direct financial impact of the tariffs remained "not large" through the second quarter of 2025, as the company benefited from the inventory it had pre-purchased. Furthermore, Amazon's multi-year effort to diversify its production and sourcing away from China served as a structural hedge. CEO Andy Jassy noted that Amazon's marketplace model, which includes millions of global third-party sellers, provided a competitive advantage because many sellers could choose to absorb tariff costs to maintain market share rather than passing them entirely to consumers.

By the end of 2025, the company observed no significant attenuation of consumer demand related to the tariffs. The forward-looking risk was largely eliminated in February 2026, when U.S. courts struck down the primary legal authority (IEEPA) used to implement the "Liberation Day" tariffs. This legal victory effectively removed the headwind for the 2026 fiscal year, contributing to Amazon achieving its highest-ever operating margin of 13.1% in the first quarter of 2026.

Amazon's robust operating performance throughout the tariff period is summarized in the table below, which shows operating margins remained resilient and eventually accelerated following the removal of the tariff threat.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Note: 3Q25 results were impacted by $4.3B in special legal and severance charges unrelated to tariffs. Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $500M–$1.1B

Sources

During the quarter, we recorded one-time charges related to some historical customer returns that have not yet been resolved, and some costs to receive inventory that was pulled forward into Q1 ahead of anticipated tariffs. Without these charges, North America and international operating margins would have been approximately 90 basis points and 70 basis points higher.

We do have tariffs that we'll be paying on retail purchases based on current tariffs. It's not large in Q2. We had done a lot of pre-buying of inventory in Q1, as I mentioned earlier.

Macroeconomic factors, including... unpredictable shifts in global tariff and trade policies... have direct and indirect impacts on our results of operations that are difficult to predict, isolate, and quantify.

Analysis

Alphabet has characterized the impact of the April 2025 tariffs and related trade policy shifts as a "slight headwind" to its advertising business. This impact primarily stems from changes to the "de minimis" exemption, which has influenced the spending patterns of APAC-based retailers, such as Temu and Shein. These companies have been significant advertisers across Google Search and YouTube, and changes in trade regulations led to a moderated pace of investment from this segment in 2025.

Despite these headwinds, Alphabet's financial performance has remained resilient, driven by the broad-based adoption of AI-integrated products. For the first quarter of 2026, the company reported consolidated revenue growth of 22%, with Search and Other growing 19% year-over-year. Management noted that AI Overviews and AI Mode are driving query growth to all-time highs, effectively offsetting any sector-specific pullbacks. Additionally, Google Cloud revenue accelerated 63% to exceed $20B in a single quarter, highlighting that enterprise demand for AI infrastructure continues to outpace supply.

On the cost side, Alphabet has not disclosed a specific money amount for tariff-related expense increases. While the company's capital expenditures rose significantly to $91.4B in FY2025 and are guided to $180B-$190B for FY2026, these investments are attributed to "unprecedented demand" for AI compute rather than increased component costs due to tariffs. In fact, the company reported a 30% reduction in the cost of core AI responses through engineering and hardware breakthroughs, suggesting that internal efficiencies are currently outstripping external cost pressures.

Mitigation strategies have focused on operational productivity and tax planning. Changes to U.S. tax law enacted on July 4, 2025, allowed Alphabet to utilize immediate expensing for domestic R&D and accelerated depreciation on eligible capital expenditures. These measures have provided a tailwind to operating cash flows, helping to fund the massive infrastructure build-out required for its AI leadership. Alphabet also continues to monitor international trade volatility but maintains that its diversified revenue streams and full-stack AI approach provide a robust defense against localized trade disruptions.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Annual Report FY-2025, Transcript 1Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Sources

The changes to the de minimis exemption will obviously cause a slight headwind to our ads business in 2025, primarily from APAC-based retailers.

As a result of volatility in international trade and financial markets, we may experience direct and indirect effects on our business, operations, and financial results.

Since upgrading AI Overviews and AI Mode to Gemini 3, we have reduced the cost of core AI responses by more than 30%, thanks to continued hardware and engineering breakthroughs.

Analysis

Boeing has managed the 2025 tariff environment through a combination of supply chain insulation and active mitigation strategies. The company’s primary exposure centers on commercial aerospace subcomponents imported from Japan and Italy, which were subject to a baseline 10% tariff under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) enacted in April 2025. Despite these headwinds, management established an annual cost impact "bogey" of less than $500M, a figure the company was eventually able to "beat" through bilateral trade agreements and duty drawback provisions. By the end of 2025, the U.S. had reached "zero for zero" trade deals with the UK, Japan, and the EU, effectively neutralizing significant portions of the input cost pressure for Boeing.

The most acute disruption in 2025 occurred in the Chinese market, where customers temporarily paused deliveries of approximately 50 aircraft in response to tariff negotiations. Management estimated the value of these deliveries to be north of $1.0B. However, the impact was largely temporary as the U.S. and China announced a bilateral trade arrangement on November 1, 2025, which extended a pause on reciprocal and retaliatory tariffs until November 10, 2026. This allowed deliveries to resume and provided a clear runway for the company's 2026 delivery plan, which includes a similar volume of aircraft slated for China.

Boeing’s mitigation efforts are supported by the structure of its supply chain, with approximately 80% of its annual commercial supply spend directed to U.S.-based suppliers. Furthermore, because roughly 80% of its aircraft are delivered to customers outside the United States, Boeing extensively utilizes duty drawback programs to recover tariffs paid on imported components. In the defense sector, the company benefits from additional protections, such as exemptions for defense materials under Chapter 98 of the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, leaving its defense-specific margins largely insulated from the broader tariff packages introduced on "Liberation Day."

As of early 2026, the company continues to characterize the trade environment as "super dynamic." While bilateral agreements have mitigated the most severe threats, management remains diligent regarding the potential for renewed retaliatory measures. The 2026 outlook is supported by the extended tariff pause with China and existing trade deals, but the company acknowledges that its results reflect only those tariffs enacted as of the end of 2025. Any new or expanded tariffs beyond current agreements would require further management action to preserve the company's recovery and production rate goals.

Sources: Transcript FY-2025, Annual Report FY-2025, Transcript 1Q-2025, Transcript 2Q-2025, Breaking Defense

Data

Tariff Impact Comparison (2025)

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Company filings, Breaking Defense, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $1.0B
• Cost Impact (Historic): $300M–$500M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $500M

Sources

This is super dynamic, right? It could change tomorrow... we’ve worked through what initially looked like some pretty hairy tariff environments to resulting in pretty good outcomes.

The net annual impact of higher tariffs on our input costs is manageable and within our plan, it’s less than $500mn annually.

I hope over time that these tariffs can be resolved through negotiated agreements. Until that happens, we will have to manage our way through these increased input costs.

No tariff impact data available.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Prologis (PLD) experienced an immediate and significant shock to its leasing activity following the announcement of "Liberation Day" tariffs on April 2, 2025. This trade policy uncertainty triggered an abrupt "pause" in customer decision-making, with leasing volumes dipping approximately 20% in the initial two weeks post-announcement. The disruption was primarily concentrated among customers with China-based production, while those in essential consumer products and domestic sourcing remained more resilient.

The financial impact of the 2025 tariffs was most evident in the company's guidance and development activity. Prior to the April 2nd announcement, Prologis was outperforming expectations and intended to raise its full-year 2025 guidance. Instead, management maintained guidance due to the heightened uncertainty, effectively creating an earnings headwind relative to previous momentum. The company also reduced its development start guidance for 2025 from higher anticipated levels to a range of $1.5B–$2.0B, reflecting a shift toward build-to-suit projects over speculative developments until visibility improved.

By the third quarter of 2025 and into early 2026, the tariff-related impact began to "thaw out" as customers became desensitized to trade policy volatility. Net absorption accelerated to 47 million sq ft in 3Q 2025, suggesting a turning point in demand. Management noted that while the initial instability disrupted supply chains, it ultimately reinforced the need for resilient, flexible inventory positioning. Customers mitigated the impact by accelerating shipments (pull-forward) and utilizing more short-term flexible space through third-party logistics (3PL) providers.

As of the first quarter of 2026, the company has reported record leasing activity and raised its full-year 2026 guidance, indicating that the immediate negative effects of the 2025 tariffs have largely been absorbed. The company's long-term strategy of investing in infill "consumption" markets rather than production markets has served as a structural buffer, as goods continue to be consumed where people live regardless of their origin. Elevated replacement costs driven by tariff-related inflation are also expected to support long-term rent growth by constraining new supply.

Data

(Macy's ($M), unless otherwise noted)

Source: Transcript 1Q-2025, Transcript 3Q-2025, Transcript 1Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $10M–$20M
• Cost Impact (Historic): $50M–$100M

Sources

Prior to April 2nd, industrial fundamentals were improving, and had it not been for the recent uncertainty from global tariffs and their downstream impacts, we would have raised our expectations for 2025. Instead, we are electing to maintain earnings guidance.

By comparison, when our business faced abrupt tariff related uncertainty in April of 2025, the pause in leasing activity was relatively immediate before thawing out in the following weeks and months.

Water is building behind the dam. It is going to break at some point.

Analysis

Abbott identified the implementation of U.S. tariffs — introduced in April 2025 as part of the "Liberation Day" initiative — as a significant headwind to its gross margin and overall cost structure. Management estimated the net impact of these tariffs for fiscal year 2025 to be approximately $200M, primarily driven by increased costs on imported components and finished goods. Despite these costs, the company maintained its guidance for double-digit adjusted EPS growth by leveraging its diversified business model and operational efficiencies.

The company anticipates a "full-year effect" of these tariffs in fiscal year 2026, which represents a larger absolute headwind compared to the partial-year impact observed in 2025. To counteract these sustained costs, Abbott chartered a dedicated team focused on tariff mitigation strategies, which include supply chain adjustments, manufacturing relocations, and gross margin expansion initiatives. Management noted that once tariffs are established, they are difficult to reverse, necessitating long-term structural changes rather than temporary workarounds.

As a strategic long-term response, Abbott announced plans to construct a new cardiovascular manufacturing facility within the United States. This move is designed to reduce the company's reliance on imported products and mitigate the long-term impact of trade barriers on its medical device portfolio. While the tariffs created immediate margin pressure, Abbott's ability to achieve record gross margins in certain quarters of 2025 suggests that its broader productivity and pricing programs are effectively offsetting these regulatory headwinds.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $200M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $200M–$300M

Sources

Tariffs are expected to have an impact of a little less than $200 million.

The first meaningful impact of tariffs that we're feeling in gross margin is in the third quarter.

We've been able to work hard this year to be able to mitigate the impacts of tariffs as they have a full-year effect next year.

Analysis

PepsiCo was significantly impacted by the "Liberation Day" and reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025, which primarily pressured the company's cost structure and led to a substantial reduction in full-year 2025 earnings guidance. The tariffs imposed a 25% charge on imported aluminum used for soda cans and a 10% import duty on beverage concentrate, which PepsiCo produces in Ireland for its flagship brands, including Pepsi and Mountain Dew. Unlike its primary competitor, Coca-Cola, which manufactures most of its concentrate within U.S. territories, PepsiCo faced direct exposure to these import levies across its North American beverage portfolio.

The financial impact was most visible in the company's revised 2025 outlook provided during the 1Q25 earnings call. PepsiCo lowered its core constant currency EPS guidance from "mid-single-digit growth" (approximately 5%) to "approximately even" with the prior year. This 500bps headwind, attributed primarily to tariffs and related supply chain friction, represented an estimated $560M hit to net income for the year. To mitigate these costs, the company accelerated its multi-year productivity initiatives, including headcount reductions and supply chain optimization, and adjusted its "price-pack architecture" to pass some costs to consumers.

Despite these headwinds, PepsiCo maintained its organic revenue growth guidance of "low-single-digit" for 2025, suggesting that the tariff impact was largely a margin and profitability challenge rather than a demand-destruction event. The company reported actual FY2025 core EPS of $8.14, effectively meeting its revised "flat" guidance relative to the $8.16 reported in FY2024. International momentum and strong productivity savings partially offset the roughly $0.41 per share tariff-related headwind.

As of May 2026, the forward-looking impact has shifted following a February 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that found many of the tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to be invalid. This ruling has effectively halted the collection of these specific duties, and PepsiCo is currently monitoring regulatory developments regarding potential refunds of tariffs paid during 2025. While the company continues to manage broader macroeconomic volatility and inflation, the direct headwind from the April 2025 tariff regime has been removed, providing a potential tailwind for 2026 earnings through lower input costs and potential administrative refunds.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except per share data)

Note: Guidance based on 1Q25 management comments; Headwind reflects the reduction from mid-single-digit growth to flat performance. Source: Transcript 1Q-2026, Earnings Press Release FY-2025, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $560M

Sources

The rationale behind the guidance adjustment that we announced today is really driven by three things... The first is tariffs. That is new news since we gave our initial guidance at the beginning of the year.

We have factored in what we know about tariffs today, and we have factored in mitigation plans, which we continue to work. Some of those we will be able to execute more quickly. Some of those will take more time.

The concentrate for Pepsi and Mountain Dew is made in Ireland and will be subject to a 10% import charge.

Analysis

ASML has primarily addressed the impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025—including the 20% "Liberation Day" tariffs on EU products—by passing the associated costs through to its customers. The company identified four direct channels for tariff exposure: the export of new lithography systems to the United States, parts for U.S.-based manufacturing, parts for field service operations, and potential reciprocal tariffs on U.S. components imported into the Netherlands. Management maintained that ASML should not bear the cost burden of these trade measures, asserting that price adjustments would be the primary tool to protect margins.

While systems and manufacturing parts costs are more easily transferred to the value chain, the company noted that passing through costs for field service parts is more complex due to existing long-term service contracts. CFO Roger Dassen indicated a potential "window" or delay before these specific costs could be fully recovered from customers. Despite these challenges, the actual impact in 2025 was described as less negative than initially feared. The company's full-year 2025 gross margin of 52.8% landed at the high end of its guided range, suggesting that mitigation efforts and strong demand for AI-related capacity expansion largely offset the direct tariff headwinds.

Looking forward, tariffs remain a significant source of uncertainty, contributing to a wider-than-usual guidance range for 2026. ASML's 2026 revenue guidance of €34B to €39B and gross margin guidance of 51% to 53% are designed to accommodate a variety of outcomes related to trade policy and export controls. Management continues to monitor the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape, noting that while the direct financial impact has been manageable thus far, the broader indirect effects on global semiconductor demand and supply chain dynamics remain unpredictable.

Data

Source: Transcript FY-2025, Transcript 2Q-2025, Transcript 1Q-2025, Marvin Labs. Note: FY2024A net income and gross margin are derived from reported figures.

Sources

We do believe that that burden should be passed on to the next element in the value chain. I think in good English, I think that's called the customer, right?

There might be a bit of a window before we're really able to pass on in full the impact that that would have on our cost... particularly for parts that we need in the United States for the service to our customers.

The level of uncertainty is increasing, mostly due to macroeconomic and geopolitics consideration and that's include of course tariff.

Analysis

U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, specifically the 10% baseline reciprocal tariff and the additional 10% levy on European Union imports (totaling 20% on LVMH goods), have created a significant financial and operational headwind for the group. The North American market, which generates approximately €17B in annual revenue (roughly 25% of total sales), is LVMH's largest and most critical single region. While the company has implemented mitigation strategies, including targeted price increases of approximately 2% to 3% across its portfolio, it has specifically noted that certain segments, such as Hennessy Cognac and lower-priced beauty products, lack the pricing power to fully offset these costs.

The Wines & Spirits division has experienced the most immediate and acute impact from these tariffs. Demand for Cognac was weighed down throughout 2025 by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies, leading to a 5% organic revenue decline for the segment in FY2025. Management has stated that while price hikes can be applied to high-end luxury goods, the volume-sensitive nature of spirits makes them more vulnerable to the cumulative cost of a 20% tariff. This dynamic has forced LVMH to explore structural production shifts, including moving more manufacturing from Europe to the United States to circumvent import duties, a move management cited as a key mitigation lever during the April 2025 period.

Profitability is facing ongoing pressure as the "full effects" of the tariffs are realized in the 2026 fiscal year. LVMH's Chief Financial Officer indicated that the group requires organic revenue growth in the 3% to 4% range to stabilize operating margins against the combined headwinds of tariffs, inflation, and operational deleverage. With 1Q2026 organic growth coming in at only 1%, the group is currently trending below the threshold needed for margin stability. Operating margins, which stood at 22% in FY2025, are consequently at risk of further compression as the higher cost of goods sold is only partially absorbed by pricing and cost-containment measures.

Strategic initiatives have transitioned from short-term "à la carte" cost-cutting to long-term operational shifts. This includes the divestiture of underperforming airport concessions and the consolidation of retail footprints to focus on high-productivity flagship locations. Management remains "reserved" regarding the short-term geo-economic outlook due to the difficulty in forecasting the total impact of reciprocal tariffs on global demand, even as they remain confident in the medium-term resilience of the luxury consumer base. The group continues to emphasize that its status as a family-controlled entity allows it to prioritize long-term brand desirability over quarterly margin optimization, even as it navigates the most disrupted trade environment in recent years.

Sources: Transcript 1Q-2026, Transcript FY-2025, 3Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary, European Business Magazine 2026

Data

(Macy's ($M), except margin data)

Note: Organic growth reported for 1Q2026 excludes a 1% headwind from Middle East conflict. Revenue for FY2025 is reported as "just over €80B" by management.

Source: Company filings, Transcript 1Q-2026, Transcript FY-2025, FY-2025 Earnings Quick Reaction, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): €250M–€400M
• Cost Impact (Historic): €1.5B–€2.0B
• Revenue Impact (Forward-Looking): €300M–€500M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): €2.0B–€2.5B

Sources

The full effects of tariffs will be felt in 2026 over the full year. There will also be an effect on fashion and leather goods and watches and jewelry. But of course, the pricing power is not the same as in wines and spirits.

On the organic, we said that we needed 3%-4% organic growth in order to stabilize margin. We could maybe do it with a bit less, but if you go to flattish or slightly negative, then it will have an impact on organic margin.

In Wines and Spirits, our brands are displaying good resilience in a challenging context, difficult in particular for Cognac, which both in China and the United States is affected by tariffs that have exceeded our forecasts.

Analysis

Occidental Petroleum identified potential headwinds following the announcement of a new U.S. tariff policy in April 2025, which introduced a 10% baseline reciprocal tariff on most imports. Management noted that these tariffs could increase supplier costs and have a macroeconomic impact on the demand and prices for the company's products. However, the company characterized the ultimate outcome of the policy as uncertain, citing ongoing litigation and instances where specific tariff rates were paused or modified after the initial announcement.

To mitigate potential cost increases, Occidental has focused on several strategic actions aimed at insulating its supply chain and maintaining margins. These strategies include locking in pricing through longer-term contracts with key vendors and capitalizing on broad operational efficiencies across its global portfolio. The company also works closely with its supply base to secure the delivery of critical materials, effectively managing inflationary pressures that could otherwise be exacerbated by new trade duties.

Financial results for the period following the tariff announcement indicate that these mitigation efforts have been effective. Despite the potential for higher input costs, Occidental successfully reduced its lease operating expense (LOE) per barrel of oil equivalent from $9.75 in FY2024 to $8.94 in FY2025. Furthermore, the company has guided for an additional $500M in operational savings for FY2026, primarily driven by continued efficiency gains in its U.S. onshore operations and lower transportation costs.

The company has not provided a specific quantitative estimate for the net financial impact of the tariffs, as the mitigation actions and the fluctuating status of the trade policy have made such assessments difficult to isolate from general inflationary trends. As of 1Q2026, the company continues to monitor tariff-related geopolitical and trade uncertainties as part of its broader risk management framework.

Data

Operational Efficiency and Mitigation Progress

(US$ per BOE, unless otherwise noted)

Source: Annual Report FY-2025, Earnings Press Release 1Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Sources

While the ultimate outcome of the tariff policy is uncertain, the implementation of these tariffs could have several implications for Occidental's business operations and financial performance as tariffs may be levied on the Company's suppliers which in turn may increase costs...

The Company works to manage inflation impacts by capitalizing on operational efficiencies, locking in pricing on longer-term contracts and working closely with vendors to secure the supply of critical materials.

In 2026, the Company will continue our emphasis on controlling total costs from a per-barrel perspective.

Analysis

Constellation Brands was significantly impacted by the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, which affected both its Beer and Wine and Spirits operations. The primary financial headwind stemmed from tariffs on aluminum, which increased the cost of product sold for the beer business by $43.1 million in the first nine months of fiscal 2026. For the full fiscal year 2026, the company estimated a total tariff-related cost impact of approximately $70 million, which included both the aluminum costs for beer and approximately $13 million in direct tariffs on wine and spirits imports from regions such as Italy and New Zealand.

The company's Wine and Spirits segment also faced substantial revenue pressure due to retaliatory trade actions, most notably a ban on U.S. wine and spirits imposed by the Canadian government. Canada represents Constellation's largest international export market, and the ban contributed to a significant decline in organic net sales and shipment volumes for the segment. While the company implemented a restructuring initiative and strategic pricing to offset these pressures, the trade-related headwinds remained a material factor in the segment's 97% to 100% organic operating income decline during fiscal 2026.

As of early fiscal 2027, the company expects relief from the aluminum tariffs that weighed on the prior year's beer margins. Management has indicated that this relief will serve as a partial offset to other headwinds, such as expansion-related costs for the new Veracruz brewery. However, the trade environment remains dynamic, with the ban on U.S. wine and spirits in Canada remaining in place as of April 2026. To mitigate ongoing risks, the company maintains a high level of hedging, including approximately 90% of its aluminum requirements and 80% of its foreign currency exposure for the current fiscal year.

Constellation's strategy to navigate these impacts includes a focus on best-in-class operational efficiency and procurement initiatives, which delivered over $145 million in net benefits during the first nine months of fiscal 2026 to partially offset rising input and tariff costs. Despite these efforts, the combination of direct import duties and retaliatory export restrictions continues to affect the overall margin profile and international growth trajectory of the Wine and Spirits portfolio.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Quarterly Report 3Q-2026, Transcript FY-2026, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $65M
• Cost Impact (Historic): $70M
• Revenue Impact (Forward-Looking): $50M–$100M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $13M–$20M

Sources

For Fiscal 2026, we expect an approximate $70 million impact from tariffs.

Internationally, we've seen some weakness as it relates to U.S.-made or U.S.-sourced wines and spirits, particularly in Canada, which is our largest market, where a ban on U.S. wine and spirits remains in place.

We additionally, as you saw in our materials, will have relief from aluminum tariffs this year.

Analysis

ExxonMobil has consistently communicated that it does not anticipate material near-term financial impacts from the tariffs introduced on "Liberation Day" (April 2, 2025) and subsequent trade actions. The company's primary strategy for managing these developments is through its centralized project organization, procurement, and supply chain management, which are designed to minimize costs and optimize delivery across its global portfolio. Management stated that projects already in flight or sanctioned are generally shielded from immediate tariff effects due to the way their contracts and logistics are structured.

In the chemicals segment, ExxonMobil's world-scale complex in China is specifically positioned to supply the local domestic market, which management describes as being protected from tariffs. By producing high-value chemical products within China for use in household appliances and hygiene products, the company avoids cross-border trade barriers that might affect imported goods. While the company acknowledges that tariffs could cause shifts in global trade flows, it maintains that the fundamental demand for energy and chemical products is driven by robust global economic needs rather than short-term trade policy adjustments.

The company continues to monitor the situation, noting that while some tariffs announced in 2025 were paused for a period, they have not been formally withdrawn. ExxonMobil's diversified business across multiple geographies and its lean cost base—having achieved $14.3B in cumulative structural cost savings since 2019—are cited as core advantages that allow it to manage macroeconomic volatility and potential supply chain headwinds without significant disruption to its long-term growth plans.

Sources

Generally speaking, for the things that are in flight where we've got work going on contracted, things we've FIDed, I think the way we've structured those contracts and the position where we're at with each of those, we're pretty well shielded from the impacts of tariffs.

We will competitively supply high-value chemical products for the China market, protected from tariffs with attractive long-term growth.

Despite the current uncertainty as to what effects these actions will ultimately have on the Corporation, our suppliers and our customers, as well as on the overall macroeconomic environment, we do not anticipate any material near-term financial impacts.

Analysis

The introduction of reciprocal tariffs in April 2025 created a period of significant "volatility and uncertainty" that directly impacted Delta Air Lines' financial performance during the first half of 2025. Management noted that the tariff announcement led to a "freeze" in both consumer and business confidence, which "stalled" growth across the industry for several months in the early spring and summer (FY-2025 Annual Report). This resulted in a substantial revenue miss relative to the company's initial expectations, particularly in the domestic main cabin segment.

The revenue impact was most acute in the March quarter of 2025 (1Q25), where total revenue growth of 2% significantly underperformed the company's January 2025 forecast of 7% to 9% growth (Quarterly Report 1Q-2026). For the full year 2025, main cabin ticket revenue fell by $1.1B compared to 2024, a decline attributed to industry-wide supply exceeding demand in the uncertain economic environment created by the tariffs (Earnings Press Release FY-2025).

To mitigate direct tariff costs on capital expenditures, Delta took strategic actions to delay the delivery of new Airbus aircraft manufactured in Europe. CEO Ed Bastian explicitly stated that the airline would not take delivery of new planes subject to tariffs, choosing to operate its existing fleet longer rather than absorbing additional duty costs. While this strategy avoided direct tariff payments, it necessitated tactical capacity reductions and "utilization flying" adjustments to manage unit revenue in a slower growth environment (Transcript 1Q-2026).

As of the March quarter of 2026 (1Q26), Delta reports that demand has largely recovered and customers are showing greater "resilience" to geopolitical and trade-related headlines (2Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary). The company has resumed its fleet renewal program and recently placed firm orders for 95 additional aircraft, signaling a return to its long-term growth strategy after the volatility of 2025.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs. Note: 1Q25 revenue loss estimated based on January 2025 guidance midpoint (8.0%) versus actual growth (2.0%). FY25 decline represents the total year-over-year drop in Main Cabin ticket revenue.

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $1.1B–$1.5B

Sources

A year ago at this time, I think people, and not just people, individual, importantly, corporates, were stalled, were a bit frozen by the dramatic nature of the tariff uncertainty.

We've got a recovery from last year at this time where we were the hardest hit on revenue from the tariffs and other various events.

The airline would not take delivery of new Airbus planes with tariffs.

Analysis

Phillips 66 (PSX) has identified specific operational and strategic challenges resulting from the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, particularly the 10% reciprocal "Liberation Day" tariffs. The most immediate impact is observed in the Renewable Fuels segment, where domestic producers are facing a competitive disadvantage. While international renewable diesel (RD) imports to the U.S. remain untariffed, the feedstocks required for domestic production are subject to the new levies. This has created a margin headwind for PSX assets like the Rodeo facility, and management is actively collaborating with the administration to address these unintended consequences.

The company's NGL and LPG export business is also navigating significant disruptions, particularly in trade flows to China. Historically, a substantial portion of U.S. ethane and propane was exported to the Chinese market. Management expects these routes to be altered as China seeks supply from non-U.S. sources such as Southeast Asia, Australia, and the Middle East. While PSX anticipates that U.S. supply will eventually backfill the resulting holes in other global regions, the immediate uncertainty has led to a re-evaluation of global trade routing. However, the company's Freeport LPG export terminal remains largely insulated due to existing term contracts, with no FOB cancellations reported as of late April 2025.

In the Chemicals segment, operated through the CPChem joint venture, Phillips 66 has reported that exposure to China has been minimized. Nevertheless, the broader "Liberation Day" tariff regime is contributing to a slowdown in customer decision-making across the polyethylene value chain. Management noted that policy uncertainty—including the lack of clarity on product exemptions and the final implementation of production tax credits (PTC)—is weighing on overall market sentiment and demand forecasting for the remainder of 2025.

Despite these headwinds, the company maintains that its integrated business model provides stability. Management has expressed a cautious outlook, suggesting that while rational discussions regarding tariff exemptions may occur, the current macro environment remains challenging. The company is particularly focused on ensuring that domestic manufacturing is not penalized by tariff structures that favor finished product imports over raw material feedstocks. Similarly, potential "secondary tariffs" on countries purchasing Venezuelan oil could impact future sourcing and trading optionality, though the specific financial impact of such measures has not yet been quantified.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except as indicated)

Source: 1Q-2025 Earnings Press Release, 1Q-2025 Earnings Quick Reaction

Sources

We look forward to collaborating with the administration to support U.S. manufacturing by addressing the unintended consequences of tariffs on feedstocks, given international RD imports to the U.S. are untariffed, which disadvantages domestic producers like Rodeo.

Tariffs will likely alter those routes for Chinese LPG supply. It's possible that China could get their supply from the AG, from Australia, from Southeast Asia. The U.S. will just supply, will backfill the hole left by those regions.

There's a few other options for the Chinese that are consuming ethane. I think that it's clear that there are at least possibly some rational discussions going on around tariffs... it's in their best interest to seek that accommodation.

Analysis

Ford Motor Company was significantly affected by the implementation of U.S. automotive tariffs in April 2025. In FY2025, the company reported a net EBIT headwind of $2.0B attributable to these tariffs, after accounting for mitigation and offsets. This was substantially higher than the company's mid-year expectations due to a "late-year change" in the effective date of tariff credits for auto parts. These credits, which were intended to help automakers offset levies on parts for U.S.-assembled vehicles, became effective on November 1st rather than the originally anticipated May 3rd, resulting in a $1.0B negative variance compared to guidance provided in October 2025 (Transcript FY-2025).

The company's gross tariff costs for FY2025 reached $3.0B, with the $1.0B difference between gross and net representing the impact of partial tariff relief and credits (Annual Report FY-2025). As of December 31, 2025, Ford held a receivable of $974M for tariffs paid but not yet refunded by the U.S. government. Management noted that Ford's status as the largest producer of vehicles in America (producing five vehicles domestically for every one imported) makes it uniquely exposed to tariffs on imported components relative to competitors with different manufacturing footprints.

For FY2026, Ford expects a $1.0B year-over-year tailwind from the "core" automotive tariffs, as the aforementioned parts credits will be available for a full year. However, this benefit is expected to be largely offset by $1.5B-$2.0B in "temporary costs" related to sourcing aluminum. These costs, stemming from fires at a major supplier's (Novelis) plant, explicitly include additional tariffs and premium freight to ensure supply continuity through May-September 2026. Consequently, the combined headwind from tariffs and tariff-related supply chain disruptions is expected to remain a multi-billion dollar drag on profitability in the coming year (Transcript FY-2025).

Mitigation strategies have centered on working with the administration to secure policy changes and reimbursements. CEO Jim Farley has characterized recent executive actions softening some automotive tariffs as "helpful, but still not enough," noting the need for policies that reward American production and encourage exports (CNBC 2025). Ford also took decisive action in May 2025 by suspending its full-year guidance due to the extreme uncertainty and material risk posed by the then-new tariff regime.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except percentages)

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs. FY26 Net EBIT Impact reflects core tariff savings offset by temporary sourcing costs.

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $2.0B
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $2.0B

Sources

That's a $1 billion higher tariff impact than we communicated just in October due to the unexpected and late-year change in tariff credits for auto parts. Without that, a full-year EBIT on that one-timer would have been $7.7bn of EBIT.

Imagine if the companies who import all the vehicles in the U.S. treated American manufacturing like Ford.

In 2025, Ford's gross costs related to tariffs implemented or revised in 2025 was about $3 billion, including the impact of tariff relief, and the net EBIT impact was about $2 billion after offsets.

Analysis

Conagra Brands (CAG) is significantly affected by the wave of U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025, specifically those targeting imported tin plate steel, aluminum, and Chinese imports, as well as broader reciprocal tariffs. Management has quantified the impact as a 3% additional headwind to its fiscal 2026 inflation estimate, bringing the total expected inflation for the year to approximately 7%. The most direct impact stems from the 50% tariff rate on imported tin plate steel and aluminum, which are critical components for the company's extensive canned goods and frozen meal packaging.

To counteract these cost increases, Conagra is employing a multifaceted mitigation strategy that includes alternative sourcing, supply chain productivity initiatives, and targeted pricing actions. During the third quarter of fiscal 2026, CEO Sean Connolly highlighted that the company's combined core productivity and tariff mitigation efforts are expected to exceed 5% of cost of goods sold for the full year. This suggests that while the gross tariff headwind is substantial, the company aims to offset a significant portion of the burden through internal efficiencies and price adjustments.

However, the strategy of passing through tariff-related costs via price increases carries the risk of "demand destruction" and volume elasticity. Management has acknowledged that they have "had to eat some higher cost" in certain strategic categories, such as frozen meals, to protect market share and maintain volume momentum. While the company expressed confidence in achieving margin expansion as productivity programs like Project Catalyst gain traction, the net impact remains a notable headwind that requires continuous surgical pricing and aggressive cost-saving measures to manage.

For the remainder of fiscal 2026 and into fiscal 2027, the company remains cautious, noting that the tariff environment is fluid. The fiscal 2026 guidance specifically contemplates a 50% rate on steel and aluminum, a 20-30% rate on specific Chinese imports, and a 10% reciprocal rate for certain other countries. Historic impacts in fiscal 2025 were described as limited, as the company worked through existing inventory before the full weight of the new tariff rates began to hit the P&L.

Data

Fiscal 2026 Inflation and Mitigation Estimates

($ in millions, except percentages)

Source: Transcript 1Q26, Transcript 3Q26, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $10M–$20M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $250M–$265M

Sources

In fiscal 2026, between core productivity and tariff mitigation, that number is just over 5%, which is very strong. Second, at some point, we're gonna get inflation relief, hopefully back to closer to our typical 2%.

And so they're really the key drivers to get us to the 4% we're estimating for 2026. And then obviously the tariff piece of that is an additional 3%, which we talked about.

While the tariff situation remains fluid, guidance contemplates a 50% tariff rate on imported tin plate steel and aluminum, a 30% rate on limited imports from China, and a 10% reciprocal rate on imports from certain other countries.

Analysis

Nike has been significantly affected by the new U.S. "reciprocal" or "Liberation Day" tariffs introduced in April 2025 under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). These tariffs targeted key manufacturing hubs in Southeast Asia and China, leading to a substantial increase in import costs for footwear and apparel. In response, Nike implemented aggressive mitigation strategies, including price adjustments in the U.S. and a strategic shift in footwear manufacturing out of China to reduce tariff exposure.

As of late February 2026, the company reported having paid approximately $1.0B in tariffs under IEEPA. While the U.S. Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that these tariffs were unauthorized, Nike has stated that potential recovery of these funds is not considered probable. This suggests that the accrued costs represent a permanent headwind to the company's historical profitability during the period the tariffs were active.

The financial impact on gross margins has been material, particularly in the North America segment. For the third quarter of fiscal 2026, higher U.S. tariffs resulted in a 300 basis point gross headwind to the total company's reported gross margin, with the North America segment specifically experiencing a gross impact of nearly 650 basis points. For the full fiscal year 2026, the company expects a gross headwind of 320 basis points, which it aims to reduce to a net impact of approximately 120 basis points through mitigation efforts.

Looking ahead, management expects 1Q2027 to be the final quarter where these higher tariffs represent a material year-over-year headwind. A recovery in gross margins is anticipated to begin in 2Q2027 as mitigation actions take fuller effect and the comparative impact of the tariffs begins to ease. Despite the recent legal developments, the company remains focused on cleaning up marketplace inventory and rebalancing its distribution channels to offset the cumulative cost pressures.

Data

Margin Impact and Tariff Costs

Note: Total tariffs paid of $1.0B reflects cumulative payments through 3Q26 as reported in Quarterly Report 3Q-2026. Net FY26 margin impact reflects company guidance after mitigation offsets. Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $1.0B
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $555M

Sources

As a result of new tariffs, we expect a gross incremental cost of approximately $1.5 billion on an annualized basis.

While the tariff environment has been uncertain, assuming no significant changes, we expect the first quarter of fiscal 2027 to be the final quarter where higher tariffs continue to be a material year-over-year headwind to gross margin.

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that U.S. tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act ('IEEPA') on goods imported into the U.S. were unauthorized. [...] As such, we have determined that potential recovery of any funds is not probable.

Analysis

Ross Stores (ROST) has faced a significant headwind from U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, primarily impacting its merchandise margin and distribution costs. The company reported a total negative impact of $0.16 per share on earnings for the first nine months of fiscal 2025. This cost was driven by increased input costs and tariff-related processing expenses within its distribution centers.

Management has successfully executed several mitigation strategies to offset these costs, including vendor cost concessions, opportunistic closeout purchases, and modest market-driven price increases. These efforts, combined with stronger-than-expected comparable store sales, allowed the company to lower its full-year tariff cost estimate. Ross Stores now expects the fourth-quarter tariff impact to be negligible, bringing the total estimated cost for fiscal 2025 to approximately $0.15 per share, or roughly $48.4M.

The outlook for fiscal 2026 is currently neutral regarding these specific tariffs, assuming no further policy changes. The company believes that its commitment to maintaining a strong value proposition relative to traditional retailers, coupled with its sophisticated merchant team, will allow it to continue navigating the tariff environment without meaningful top-line destruction. Comp sales in the third quarter of 2025 accelerated to 7%, suggesting that the company's pricing actions have not negatively impacted consumer demand.

Data

Estimated Tariff Impact on Fiscal 2025 Financials

Source: 3Q-2025 Earnings Transcript, Marvin Labs. Total cost estimated based on ~322.3M shares outstanding.

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $48M

Sources

Included in year-to-date 2025 earnings are an approximate $0.16 per share negative impact from tariff-related costs.

As for tariffs, we now forecast the fourth quarter impact to be negligible, leading to a full year cost of approximately $0.15 per share.

It is neutral in Q4 and expected to be neutral as we move into 2026.

Analysis

Macy's faced significant headwinds from tariffs introduced in early 2025, which weighed on both gross margins and profitability throughout fiscal 2025. For the full year, the company estimated that these duties created a 40 to 50 basis point drag on gross margins, equating to a headwind of approximately $0.25 to $0.35 in adjusted diluted EPS. The impact was particularly concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2025, where tariffs resulted in a 60 basis point hit to the gross margin rate and a $0.13 reduction in EPS. Despite these pressures, the company managed to exceed its upwardly revised annual guidance through strong execution of its turnaround strategy.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, management expects tariff-related pressures to persist but diminish as the year progresses. The company has guided to a full-year EPS headwind of $0.10 to $0.20 and a gross margin impact of 20 to 30 basis points. The first quarter of 2026 is projected to see the most significant impact, with a 40 to 60 basis point headwind on margins and a $0.05 to $0.10 drag on EPS, as the company works through existing inventory costed at higher rates. Management anticipates lapping the peak tariff rates in the second quarter, which is expected to support margin expansion in the second half of the year.

Macy's is actively employing several strategies to mitigate the financial impact of these trade policies. These include selective price increases and ongoing efforts to diversify its supply chain away from heavily tariffed regions, particularly China, which historically accounted for roughly 20% of its private brand sourcing. The company is also leveraging operational efficiencies from its "Bold New Chapter" transformation, such as inventory modernization and AI-driven supply chain optimizations, to protect its bottom line. Management remains cautious in its revenue outlook, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty driven in part by the evolving tariff landscape.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except per share data)

Source: Transcript FY-2025, Transcript 3Q-2025

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $69M–$97M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $28M–$55M

Sources

Results were also above our initial guidance, despite the unanticipated impact of tariffs and lower-than-expected asset sale gains.

We expect a tariff impact to gross margin of roughly 20 basis points-30 basis points. We begin to lap higher tariffs in the second quarter.

For the first quarter... we expect tariffs to negatively impact EPS by roughly $0.05-$0.10 and gross margin rate by roughly 40 basis points-60 basis points.

Analysis

Carnival Corporation faces significant indirect headwinds from the U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs introduced in April 2025, primarily manifested through elevated fuel and food costs. Management explicitly quantified a $500M fuel price headwind in its FY2026 guidance, attributing the spike to "recent geopolitical events" which include the trade volatility following the tariff announcements (Transcript 1Q-2026). This headwind is expected to more than offset $0.11 per share in operational improvements previously forecasted for the year.

The inflationary impact of the tariffs is also evident in the company's provisioning and supply chain. Food expenses for 1Q2026 (ended February 28, 2026) rose to $382M, an 8% increase compared to $354M in 1Q2025, despite a negligible 0.5% increase in passenger capacity (Earnings Press Release 1Q-2026). Furthermore, repair and maintenance expenses grew by $75M year-over-year in the same quarter, reflecting higher costs for parts and materials potentially impacted by import duties.

To mitigate these impacts, the company is leveraging its industry-leading cost structure and aggressive energy conservation. CEO Josh Weinstein noted that fuel consumption savings in 2026 are expected to yield $650M in benefits compared to 2019 levels, helping to neutralize the current $500M pricing headwind (Transcript 1Q-2026). Additionally, Carnival is shifting its itinerary planning to favor destinations like "Celebration Key" in the Caribbean, which are closer to U.S. home ports, thereby reducing fuel burn and exposure to international trade disruptions.

Despite these macro-economic pressures, Carnival has not seen a material decline in demand. The company reported record first-quarter customer deposits of nearly $8B and a record book position for the remainder of 2026 at historically high prices (Earnings Press Release 1Q-2026). Management believes the relative value of cruise vacations compared to land-based alternatives remains a key differentiator that allows them to maintain pricing power even as input costs rise.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except per share data)

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs. Note: 1Q2025A ending February 28, 2025; 1Q2026A ending February 28, 2026.

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $103M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $500M

Sources

That improvement helps absorb a $500 million fuel headwind, albeit that is against a substantial EBITDA forecast of $7bn.

The $0.11 per share operational improvement for 2026 will be more than offset by a $0.38 per share headwind from higher fuel prices, driven by recent geopolitical events.

We pricing as much as the market can bear... If they were willing to pay $10 more because of fuel, they should just be willing to pay $10 more. It is a little bit separated.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

FedEx has identified the evolving global trade environment and U.S. tariff policy changes as a significant headwind to its financial performance. For fiscal year 2026, the company embedded a $1.0B headwind to adjusted operating profit in its outlook, directly attributed to these global trade policy shifts. This impact is primarily concentrated in the company's international export business, particularly on the trans-Pacific trade lane between China and the United States. Management noted that the China-to-U.S. lane represents approximately 2.5% of consolidated revenue and is historically its most profitable intercontinental lane, making volume declines in this segment particularly impactful to margins.

Following the initial tariff announcements in April 2025, FedEx observed a sharp deterioration in China-to-U.S. volumes starting in May 2025. This was preceded by a brief surge in customs entries at the Memphis hub, which doubled compared to the early 2025 average as shippers attempted to pull forward volume before implementation. To mitigate these impacts, FedEx leveraged its "Tricolor" network strategy to rapidly flex capacity. In early May 2025, the company reduced its Asia-to-Americas capacity by more than 35% week-over-week, including a 50% reduction in third-party "white-tail" capacity. Throughout the fiscal year, FedEx continued to reallocate capacity from trans-Pacific lanes to Asia-Europe and intra-Asia lanes where demand remained more resilient.

The removal of the de minimis exemption for imports from China in April 2025, and later from other countries in August 2025, further increased operational complexity and costs. FedEx responded by implementing a new surcharge on de minimis shipments to cover incremental costs associated with increased customs entries and brokerage requirements. Despite these mitigation efforts, the company faced higher credit losses and sustained volume pressure in its international priority and economy freight services throughout the first three quarters of fiscal year 2026.

Recent legal developments have introduced a potential path for mitigating past tariff costs. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated certain tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, FedEx filed a lawsuit against U.S. Customs and Border Protection on February 23, 2026, seeking a full refund of all IEEPA tariffs it has paid to date. While the company has not yet recorded any financial benefit from this ruling, a successful outcome could result in significant refunds that would offset the observed headwinds. FedEx continues to monitor ongoing trade negotiations and Executive Orders that may restructure U.S. tariff policy in the final months of fiscal year 2026.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except percentages)

Source: Transcript FY-2025 (4Q-2025), Transcript 2Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $1.0B

Sources

Regarding our Asia international export exposure, the bilateral China to U.S. lane represents around 2.5% of consolidated revenue and is our most profitable intercontinental lane. Due to escalating trade barriers in the quarter, we experienced a material headwind on our Asia to U.S. lane.

As a reminder, also embedded in our assumptions is the $1bn in headwind to adjusted operating profit from the global trade environment, offset by $1bn in transformation-related savings.

Following the April 2 tariff announcement, customer concerns increased, and as a result, volume softened. In early May, upon tariff implementation, China to U.S. volumes deteriorated sharply and remained weak throughout the rest of the quarter.

Analysis

Accenture experienced a brief period of client hesitancy following the introduction of sweeping U.S. tariffs in April 2025, which the company characterized as a global discussion rather than just a regional issue. Management noted that uncertainty surrounding reciprocal tariffs initially kept some customers "on the sidelines" as they processed the potential impact on their own supply chains and cost structures. However, this demand-side headwind was described as "very short," with clients quickly pivoting from a state of pause to focusing on large-scale reinvention projects to offset their own increased costs (Transcript 3Q-2025).

The tariff environment has acted as a catalyst for demand in specific consulting areas, particularly supply chain optimization and digital core reinvention. Accenture reported that clients are increasingly looking to use AI and advanced analytics to build resilience against macroeconomic volatility, such as using predictive models to manage inventory risks and self-fund transformation programs through identified efficiencies. By June 2025, the company observed that the initial narrative of a client spending pause had dissipated, replaced by a focus on "leapfrogging" competitors through technological adoption despite the elevated uncertainty (Transcript 3Q-2025).

Accenture's internal strategy arm closely monitored the macro impacts throughout 2025, estimating that U.S. reciprocal tariffs could increase domestic inflation by 1% to 3.4% and potentially reduce U.S. GDP by up to 4.6% in a worst-case scenario. These analyses highlighted that Industrials and Chemicals sectors were among the hardest hit due to complex global supply chains and reliance on foreign inputs. While these macro headwinds affect the broader market, Accenture's business model has shown resilience by capturing the resulting demand for operational efficiency and supply chain reconfiguration services (Accenture Strategy September 2025).

Data

Accenture Strategy Macro Impact Estimates (April 2025)

Source: Accenture Strategy April 2025, Marvin Labs. Note: These figures represent market-wide economic estimates and not direct financial impacts on Accenture's P&L.

Sources

Tariffs are a global discussion. That is not just an America's discussion.

There was this whole narrative about a pause and sitting on the sidelines [due to tariff uncertainty]. I would tell you it was very short.

Our clients have moved from pause to focus and leapfrog... [focusing on] the biggest things that are going to make a difference.

Analysis

The Home Depot is directly affected by the reciprocal and "Liberation Day" tariffs introduced in April 2025, with management estimating their exposure at "mid-single digits" of the product assortment. Following the April 2025 announcement, which included a 10% baseline tariff on global imports, the company engaged in extensive negotiations and analysis, including a meeting between CEO Ted Decker and President Trump. While a 90-day pause provided some initial relief, the company has since implemented broad pricing adjustments to offset rising input costs, with SKU prices on affected items increasing by approximately 3%.

The financial impact of these tariffs is primarily reflected in the company's "average ticket" and "transaction volume" dynamics. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Home Depot reported a 2.4% increase in average ticket, driven in part by these tariff-related pricing actions, while comparable transactions decreased by 1.6%. Management anticipates this trend will persist into fiscal 2026, with guidance assuming a 3% increase in retail prices (ticket) will be largely offset by negative transaction volume as consumer demand reacts to higher price levels.

Despite the cost headwinds, Home Depot successfully maintained its gross margin targets for fiscal 2025, landing "on the button" relative to internal expectations. This resilience is attributed to the company's diversified supply chain—where over 50% of projects are sourced domestically—and proactive mitigation strategies. However, the company remains cautious about the forward-looking impact, as "consumer uncertainty" and price elasticity continue to pressure larger discretionary projects. The net result is a shift toward repair-and-maintenance cycles as homeowners defer larger replacements in the face of inflationary pressures.

Mitigation efforts have been described as "mostly done" as of early 2026, meaning the majority of required retail price hikes to cover current tariff rates have already been integrated into the business. Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, the company expects its gross margin to face a slight headwind of 24 basis points, though this is primarily attributed to the annualization of the GMS acquisition rather than incremental tariff duties. Management's primary concern remains the potential for "higher responses of elasticity" from customers, which could drive performance toward the lower end of their comparable sales guidance range.

Data

Tariff Exposure and Pricing Impact Estimates

Source: Transcript FY-2025, Transcript J.P. Morgan Retail Forum, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $800M–$1.2B
• Cost Impact (Historic): $350M–$550M
• Revenue Impact (Forward-Looking): $1.0B–$1.5B
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $400M–$600M

Sources

We're mostly done with tariff-related pricing actions as it relates to the impacts, you know, back to April. ... To give some, again, context around that, if you think about, you know, our exposure was kind of mid-single digits. You know, and then if you think of like SKU price, that's right about 3%.

For 2026, you're likely to see ticket reflect that 3% point increase in retails. ... Our guidance assumes negative transactions offsetting that ticket.

Tariff impacts are felt by the entire market. I think the question is how do all market participants react if tariff pressures become lower? ... No one in the market is able to move outside of the broader market participants' action.

Analysis

Micron Technology has navigated the U.S. tariff landscape introduced since April 2025 with what management characterizes as "very minimal impact" on its overall financial performance and operations. The primary initial headwind came from the "Liberation Day" and reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, which imposed a 10% baseline and varying reciprocal rates on a wide range of global imports. During mid-2025, Micron observed some "modest" customer inventory pull-ins as a proactive response to these measures, but consistent healthy demand for AI-related memory and storage largely overshadowed any direct tariff-related headwinds.

A significant shift occurred on February 20, 2026, when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)-based reciprocal tariffs. Following this ruling, Micron's management reported in March 2026 that they saw no remaining impact on operations and a negligible impact on costs. While Section 232 semiconductor tariffs (25%) on advanced AI accelerators remain in force, these include broad exemptions for chips used in domestic manufacturing and U.S. data centers—sectors that align with Micron's primary end markets and its own production footprint in Boise, Idaho, and Manassas, Virginia.

The company's record-breaking financial results in early 2026, including gross margins reaching nearly 75% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, further demonstrate that any remaining tariff costs have been more than offset by strong pricing execution and a favorable product mix. Management continues to emphasize that their current guidance excludes potential future new tariffs, as they remain focused on meeting a massive supply-demand gap in the AI memory market. Micron's strategy to expand domestic U.S. supply—highlighted by its $200B long-term investment plan in Idaho and New York—serves as a structural mitigation against future trade-related disruptions.

Sources

As you know, a few weeks later, the situation with the Liberation Day tariffs, the environment got a bit more challenging. Yeah, the condition of the market is better than expected since then, and it's strengthened through the quarter.

Some customers may have some level of tariff-related pull-ins. We think the impact of that is relatively modest here.

Managing, by the way, all this, you know, geopolitical, and the team has really been on top of that, and there's no impact to our operations. . . we don't see any supply risks and very minimal impact to cost at this time.

Analysis

General Mills expects the April 2025 tariffs, often referred to as the Liberation Day or reciprocal tariffs, to impose a significant headwind on its cost of goods sold (COGS) in fiscal 2026 and 2027. Management has identified a gross risk of 100bps to 200bps (1% to 2%) in additional COGS inflation for fiscal 2026 directly attributable to these newly enacted tariffs. This headwind comes on top of a base inflation rate of approximately 3%, bringing the total expected cost headwind to 4% to 5% for the fiscal year.

The company possesses a defensive structural posture due to its manufacturing footprint, with roughly 97% of products sold in the U.S. being manufactured domestically. Furthermore, 85% to 90% of raw materials are sourced from within North America. Despite this, the remaining 10% to 15% of sourcing remains exposed to import duties. General Mills is actively employing mitigation strategies to offset these costs, including product reformulation, ingredient substitution, and strategic revenue management actions such as pricing adjustments.

The financial impact is expected to be back-weighted within fiscal 2026. Management characterized the tariff impact as minimal in the first quarter, noting that it "stepped up" in the second quarter and is projected to increase further in the second half of the fiscal year. Importantly, the company anticipates the cost pressure will be more pronounced in fiscal 2027 than in fiscal 2026. This delay is attributed to the company’s commodity hedging and inventory coverage, which typically spans six to nine months for major inputs like wheat, delaying the realization of higher tariff-driven costs on the income statement.

While General Mills is leveraging its "Remarkability Framework" to maintain volume growth through price investments, the absorption of tariff-related costs represents a headwind to operating profit margins. The company has maintained its fiscal 2026 guidance, which incorporates the expected net impact of tariffs after accounting for mitigation efforts, but management noted that the pace of volume recovery and the ultimate cost of these tariffs remain the primary swing factors for landing within the guidance range.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Note: Dollar estimates based on FY2025 actual Cost of Goods Sold of $12.75B. General Mills expects the impact to "step up" in 2H26 and peak in FY2027.

Source: Transcript 2Q-2026, FY-2025 Earnings Presentation, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $50M–$150M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $130M–$260M

Sources

We expect the gross impact of newly enacted tariffs represents an additional risk of 1%-2% of cost of goods sold, though we are working aggressively to mitigate the impact through product reformulation, ingredient substitution, and potential strategic revenue management actions.

Tariff phasing was pretty minimal in Q1, stepped up in Q2, and we'd expect in the second half for that to step up a little further. So in aggregate, 3% base, we're still comfortable with the 1%-2% guide on the tariff additional headwind.

The impact on the cost side is expected more in fiscal year 2027 than in fiscal year 2026... what you see from wheat prices being down in the short term is probably more going to impact 27 than it is 26 on the cost side.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Target Corporation faced a substantial financial headwind in 2025 following the introduction of universal and reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, often referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs. Management quantified the combined impact of one-time tariff-related costs and associated inventory adjustments at approximately $1.5B for the 2025 fiscal year. The majority of these costs hit the company's financials during the second quarter of 2025, contributing to a 100bps year-over-year decline in gross margin rate for that period. Despite these pressures, the company was able to moderate the full-year gross margin decline to 30bps, primarily through a 90bps benefit from lower inventory shrink.

The company's mitigation strategy involved aggressive cross-functional coordination between merchandising, supply chain, and finance teams to diversify sourcing and adjust inventory receipt timing. Target intentionally adopted a "chase mode" for inventory to limit exposure to volatile trade policies. Furthermore, management prioritized maintaining value for consumers by limiting price pass-through, which effectively meant the company absorbed a significant portion of the tariff costs within its own margins rather than passing them on to guests. This approach was aimed at protecting market share and brand loyalty during a period of consumer spending volatility.

As of early 2026, the tariff landscape remains fluid following a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that declared many of the 2025 emergency tariffs unconstitutional. While this ruling creates the potential for future refunds, Target has characterized these as "moving variables" and has not yet incorporated specific recovery amounts into its financial guidance. For the 2026 fiscal year, Target expects the 2025 tariff and inventory headwinds to serve as a tailwind as they are annualized. The company plans to leverage this $1.5B year-over-year benefit to fund a $1B incremental reinvestment into its store experience, technology, and brand marketing.

Target continues to operate with a "continuous productivity" mindset to offset any lingering or future tariff impacts. The company has moved to further diversify its supply chain and is leveraging technology to improve forecasting accuracy and reduce manual work. Despite the historical pressure, Target enters 2026 with healthy underlying margin rates and inventory levels, with a focus on restoring reliable, profitable growth through its refined merchandising authority and elevated guest experience initiatives.

Data

Financial Performance and 2026 Guidance

(Macy's ($M), except per share data)

Note: FY2026E Net Sales based on ~2% growth guidance. FY2026E Operating Margin based on 20bps expansion guidance.

Tariff-Related P&L Impacts (FY2025)

Source: Transcript FY-2025, Earnings Press Release FY-2025, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $1.5B

Sources

Last year's gross margin rate was down about 30 basis points from the prior year, which is strong performance given the fact that we face significant pressure from incremental tariff costs. Throughout the year, our team did an outstanding job of managing the business through our rapidly changing tariff environment, working tirelessly to mitigate the net impact.

As one of the largest importers in the country, the prospect of higher tariffs meant we were facing some major financial and operational hurdles as we entered the year... The team has made significant progress in mitigating their impact on the P&L while maintaining our focus on value by limiting the impact on our pricing.

We're funding it [the $1B reinvestment] by leveraging a number of beneficial factors, most notably from the annualization of about $1.5bn in one-time tariff and inventory adjustment costs in 2025.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Rheinmetall reported that the impact of the April 2025 U.S. tariffs on its financial performance was immaterial. Management specifically addressed investor concerns in early April 2025, noting that only approximately 5% of group revenues were generated in the U.S. in the prior fiscal year. The company's primary defense and civilian operations in the U.S. follow a localization strategy, where products such as the XM30 prototypes are manufactured locally, thereby insulating them from import tariffs. While the company initially analyzed potential impacts from indirect parts in its supply chain, no material cost headwinds related to these tariffs were reported in subsequent quarterly or full-year financial results.

The company's strategic focus remains on the demand-side tailwinds created by the broader geopolitical environment. Management highlighted that the Trump administration's emphasis on increasing defense spending among NATO allies has acted as a catalyst for growth. For example, pressure on European nations to reach or exceed the 2% and 3.5% of GDP defense spending targets has led to significant new orders and procurement plan accelerations. In particular, management cited discussions between the Italian government and the U.S. administration as a driver for increased Italian defense spending, which directly benefits Rheinmetall's air defense and ammunition segments.

Rheinmetall's mitigation strategy centers on its "local-for-local" manufacturing model in the U.S. and its deep vertical integration in Europe. By producing critical components like rocket motors, propellants, and weapon systems in-house across multiple European sites, the company maintains a stable supply chain and minimizes exposure to international trade volatility. Furthermore, the record growth observed in FY2025—with sales reaching nearly €10B and operating results increasing 33%—underscores the dominance of defense demand over any minor trade-related headwinds. April 8, 2025 IR Update, Transcript FY-2025.

Sources

Please be reminded that only around 5% of our group revenues last year were in the U.S. The majority of that still comes from the civil business, and here we also have a localization strategy, so a lot of the business is local for local.

Of course, there might be some impacts due to indirect parts, but this is something we are still in the process of analyzing.

Prime Minister Meloni said, 'Okay, we have to grow from 1.5% to more than 2% of the GDP because this was the discussion that she had with President Trump.'

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Volkswagen has faced a significant financial and operational impact from the U.S. "Liberation Day" and reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. The company reported a direct cost burden of €2.9B in 2025 attributable to these tariffs, which negatively impacted its group operating margin by approximately 100bps. This headwind forced a substantial downward revision of the company's 2025 operating return on sales guidance from an original 5.5%–6.5% range to a realized 4.6% (Transcript FY-2025).

The tariffs have severely disrupted Volkswagen's North American volume and sales mix. During the first half of 2025, North American vehicle sales fell by 16%, a decline management primarily attributed to the new trade barriers. The impact was particularly acute for the premium Audi and Porsche brands, which rely heavily on exports to the U.S. market and have no local production capacity to shield them from the 15% tariff rate settled in late July 2025. In the second quarter of 2025 alone, Porsche's operating result plummeted by more than 90% as it absorbed the retroactive costs of the new trade regime (CNBC 2025).

In response to the changed trade environment, Volkswagen is initiating a "structural reset" of its North American business model. The company is evaluating additional localization options for imported vehicles, including the potential for Audi to share the new Scout Motors manufacturing facility in South Carolina. Management has indicated that the previous localized production model in North America no longer works as intended under current trade barriers and that a plan for medium-term resilience will be developed throughout 2026 (Transcript FY-2025).

For 2026, Volkswagen's guidance reflects the assumption that these tariffs are "here to stay." The company expects an operating return on sales of 4.0%–5.5%, which maintains the approximately 1% margin drag from the 2025 baseline. While the settlement of tariffs at 15% (down from initial threats of 25% or 30%) provided some relief, the company continues to prioritize investment discipline and cost reduction programs to offset the permanent increase in its global cost base (Transcript FY-2025).

Data

U.S. Tariff Impact Summary (FY 2025)

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): €9.5B
• Cost Impact (Historic): €2.9B
• Revenue Impact (Forward-Looking): €9.5B
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): €3.2B

Sources

U.S. tariffs added another EUR 2.9 billion burden to Volkswagen Group since April 2025.

Trade barriers mean our model no longer works as intended, and a structural reset is required. There are unfortunately no quick fixes.

The increased tariffs and related loss of sales volume in the U.S. took another percentage point from our margin.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) has navigated significant headwinds from U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, commonly known as the "Liberation Day" or reciprocal tariffs. The most substantial impact was a $1.6B non-cash goodwill impairment charge recorded in fiscal 2025 for the Hybrid Cloud reporting unit. Management explicitly attributed this impairment to a "rapid deterioration" in the macroeconomic environment driven by the announcement and subsequent modifications of international tariffs, which necessitated an increase in the discount rates used for asset valuation.

Operationally, the company absorbed a direct net earnings hit of $0.02 per share in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 alone. This impact occurred despite a 90-day pause on many reciprocal tariffs that was in effect between April and July 2025. Following the expiration of this pause on July 9, 2025, and the subsequent resumption of tariffs in August, HPE continued to face elevated input costs. While the company does not provide a single consolidated dollar figure for the full-year tariff cost, the persistent $0.02 per quarter headwind suggests an annualized net impact on profitability of approximately $86M to $115M, after accounting for mitigation efforts.

HPE’s primary mitigation strategy has been an "agile pricing posture," aggressively passing through increased component and tariff costs to customers. In fiscal 2025, this resulted in a 20.1% increase in Average Unit Prices (AUPs) for the Server segment, representing a $2.56B pricing tailwind. However, these pricing actions contributed to demand destruction, with Server net unit volumes declining by 6.5%, creating an $827M revenue headwind. The company has also shortened its quote commitment cycles and reserved the right to reprice existing orders between quoting and shipment to protect margins.

Looking forward to fiscal 2026, HPE has raised its earnings guidance, indicating that its mitigation measures—including DRAM and NAND-related surcharges—are largely offsetting the direct cost of tariffs. Management is also closely monitoring a recent Supreme Court decision that may allow companies to seek reimbursement for certain previously paid duties. Despite these offsets, the company continues to warn of "unprecedented supply tightness" and the potential for further demand elasticity if pricing remains elevated, particularly as it prioritizes higher-margin product orders over total volume.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except per share data)

Note: Estimated Net Earnings Impact is based on the reported $0.02 per share headwind applied to 1.44B shares across the final three quarters of FY25. Pricing and volume figures refer specifically to the Server segment.

Source: Annual Report FY-2025, Transcript 1Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $827M
• Cost Impact (Historic): $86M

Sources

The decline in the fair value of the Hybrid Cloud reporting unit was primarily driven by an increase in the discount rate used in the discounted cash flows analysis, which reflected heightened macroeconomic uncertainty... primarily driven by the announcement and subsequent modifications of international tariffs.

We have taken decisive actions to protect margins. We implemented DRAM-related price increases starting in November 2025, shortened quote commitment cycles, and are more tightly coordinated across our supply chain, pricing, and sales organizations.

Following the Supreme Court's recent tariff decision, we continue to monitor developments closely with greater clarity on tariff outcomes needed to fully assess the potential business impact.

Analysis

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has navigated a complex and fluid tariff environment following the introduction of reciprocal duties in April 2025. Approximately one-third of the company's U.S. sales are imported, with management noting that items from China, Mexico, and Canada represent roughly half of that import exposure. This high import penetration initially caused direct inflationary pressure, particularly in fresh items sourced from Central and South America during the third quarter of fiscal 2025 (3Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary).

In response, Costco utilized its "treasure hunt" model to maintain merchandising flexibility, opting to absorb a portion of the increased costs rather than passing them entirely to members. This strategic choice to remain the "pricing authority" contributed to a modest 8-basis point decline in core-on-core gross margins in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 (Transcript 2Q-2025). Mitigation efforts focused on aggressive sourcing shifts, including moving production to the U.S. or other less-affected regions, consolidating global buying power, and increasing the penetration of Kirkland Signature (KS) private-label products, where the company has greater supply chain control (Transcript 2Q-2026).

A significant operational shift occurred in February 2026, when the Supreme Court ruled that many of the tariffs introduced in 2025 were unlawful. Following this ruling, Costco began a legal pursuit for refunds of duties paid, with third-party estimates suggesting the potential recovery could exceed $1 billion (LinkedIn 2026). As certain tariffs were reduced or eliminated, the company started lowering prices for members on previously affected items, including textiles, bedding, and cookware (Transcript 2Q-2026).

Despite the court victory, the tariff landscape remains volatile. Management noted in March 2026 that recently eliminated duties have been replaced by new global tariffs scheduled for at least the next 150 days. The company continues to adjust its assortment to minimize exposure, such as reducing the number of imported stock-keeping units (SKUs) in high-volume holiday categories in favor of U.S.-sourced alternatives (Transcript 1Q-2026). Financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2026 indicate successful mitigation, with gross margins improving 5 basis points (excluding non-recurring items) even while managing ongoing tariff impacts (Transcript 2Q-2026).

Data

Tariff Exposure and Impact Summary

($B, except basis point data)

*Excludes 6bps non-recurring legal settlement.

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $1.0B–$2.0B
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $800M–$1.5B

Sources

The future impact of tariffs remains extremely fluid, as the recently eliminated IEEPA tariffs have now been replaced with new global tariffs for at least the next 150 days.

As we say, when it rains, it rains on everyone, such as a tariff that we're all equal there... Our people are nimble, and they're ready to go at it if they need to.

In many cases, we didn't pass the full cost [of tariffs] on to our members. The complexity of the tariffs implemented over the past year... also made it challenging to track the exact impact to an individual item sold.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Kroger has reported that the April 2025 tariffs, which introduced a baseline 10% rate on most imports and higher reciprocal rates on select countries, have not had a material impact on its business through the third quarter of fiscal 2025. Management emphasized that as a domestic food retailer, the company is less exposed to international trade volatility than many of its competitors. In September 2025, the company reaffirmed its expectation that these tariffs would not have a material impact going forward, noting that its exposure is primarily managed through proactive sourcing strategies and a focus on domestic suppliers (Transcript 2Q-2025).

While the overall financial impact is characterized as immaterial, management acknowledged that tariffs occasionally influence the pricing of specific products. The company’s strategy is to absorb cost increases whenever possible, using price hikes as a last resort to maintain competitive value for customers. This approach is intended to mitigate the potential for demand destruction during a period where consumers are already exercising caution due to broader macroeconomic uncertainty and a challenging inflationary environment for staples like beef and coffee (Transcript 3Q-2025).

Despite the stable outlook regarding tariffs, the company has seen an increase in its LIFO (Last-In, First-Out) charges, which reached $44M in the third quarter of 2025 compared to $4M in the prior year. Management attributed this increase to higher expected annualized product cost inflation rather than direct tariff duties. The company continues to monitor the tariff landscape as part of its broader risk management, specifically noting it as a factor that could influence its ability to achieve its sales and operating profit goals for the remainder of the year (Quarterly Report 3Q-2025).

Sources

Tariffs have not had a material impact on our business thus far, and as of now, do not expect them to going forward.

As a domestic food retailer, we expect a smaller impact than some of our competitors.

Occasionally, the tariffs will have an impact on some of our pricing, but pricing in general is very rational.

Analysis

Broadcom (AVGO) has not reported any material, quantified financial impact from the U.S. reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025, commonly referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs. While the company identifies trade tensions and tariffs as potential risks in its regulatory filings, the direct impact on its semiconductor business was substantially mitigated by the administration's decision to exempt semiconductors from the primary tariff actions. Consequently, Broadcom's record-breaking financial performance and margins throughout fiscal year 2025 and into early fiscal year 2026 remained driven by surging demand for AI infrastructure rather than being hindered by trade duties.

The company's initial stance on the tariffs was one of caution, with management stating in March 2025 that it was too early to determine the full scope of the impact. However, subsequent developments—including the temporary pause of reciprocal tariffs in mid-April 2025 and the eventual Supreme Court ruling in February 2026 that overturned the use of emergency powers to enact them—further reduced the risk of direct costs. In its first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Broadcom continued to list tariffs in its "Macroeconomic Factors" disclosure as a risk that is "difficult to isolate and quantify," but it did not report any specific headwinds to revenue or gross margins stemming from these duties.

The primary risk to Broadcom remained indirect, centered on potential demand destruction for end-user products (such as consumer electronics or enterprise servers) that incorporate its chips and were subject to the new import duties. Despite these concerns, Broadcom’s results demonstrated resilience, with fiscal year 2025 revenue growing 24% year-over-year to $64B and consolidated gross margins reaching a record 77.9% in the final quarter of that year. The integration of VMware and the explosive growth in AI semiconductors, which reached $20B in fiscal year 2025, effectively overshadowed any minor indirect macroeconomic pressure from the 2025 trade environment.

Management has maintained a focus on operational leverage and supply chain security to navigate the volatile trade landscape. In late fiscal year 2025, the company began scaling an advanced packaging facility in Singapore to partially insource complex packaging for custom AI accelerators, a move intended to enhance supply chain security and deliver technical advantages. By the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Broadcom reported a record AI-related backlog of $73B, indicating that customer demand for its strategic technologies remained robust despite the temporary trade uncertainties that followed the Liberation Day announcement.

Sources

Regarding tariffs, Broadcom believes it will have a better idea of their impact in another three to six months.

We are subject to risks and exposures from the evolving macroeconomic environment, including... an increase in trade tensions and related tariffs with U.S. trading partners. While difficult to isolate and quantify, these risks and exposures may cause our net revenue to fluctuate significantly and disrupt supply chain operations.

The direct impact was mitigated... this comes even though Trump excluded semiconductors from his tariffs.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Abercrombie & Fitch has experienced significant headwinds from U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025 and early 2026. Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, the company adjusted its full-year guidance to account for a net cost impact of $90M for fiscal 2025 (ending January 2026). This headwind was primarily reflected in the cost of sales, representing a 170 basis point impact on the company's annual operating margin. Despite these costs, the company maintained its record revenue growth for the year by choosing not to implement broad-based price increases in 2025, instead relying on its "read and react" supply chain model to mitigate impacts through vendor negotiations and production shifts.

For fiscal 2026, the company faces an additional $40M in incremental tariff expenses on top of the 2025 base, bringing the total expected net tariff cost to approximately $130M. This forward-looking outlook incorporates the 15% global tariffs announced in February 2026. The impact is most acute in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, where tariffs are expected to drive a 290 basis point ($30M) decline in operating margin. Over the course of the full year, the incremental headwind is expected to moderate to roughly 70 basis points as mitigation efforts take fuller effect.

To offset the escalating costs in 2026, the company has begun implementing judicious ticket price increases on spring products, specifically targeting fashion elements rather than basic categories like denim. Management expects these pricing actions to drive modest average unit retail (AUR) improvement throughout fiscal 2026. The company continues to diversify its sourcing across 16 countries and has reduced its exposure to China for U.S.-bound goods to low single digits, though the broad nature of the 2026 global tariffs limits the effectiveness of geographic shifts alone.

The company's robust balance sheet and strong brand momentum have allowed it to absorb these costs while continuing to invest in store expansions and marketing. However, the cumulative impact of tariffs remains a substantial headwind, with quarterly costs escalating from $5M in early 2025 to an expected $30M in the first quarter of 2026. Management has explicitly stated that their 2026 outlook does not assume any refunds or recoveries from potential legal challenges to the tariff mandates.

Data

Net Tariff Financial Impact Summary

Note: FY26 figures reflect the $90M base from FY25 plus the $40M incremental headwind guided by management. Margin impact for FY26 is the cumulative 240bps (170bps base + 70bps incremental).

Source: FY-2025 Transcript, 2Q-2025 Transcript, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $90M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $130M

Sources

At the midpoint, the year-over-year change reflects approximately 70 basis points of incremental tariff expense or around $40mn incrementally from 2025, net of product mitigation.

Net of planned actions, the assumed tariffs carry a cost impact of around $90 million for 2025, impacting our full year operating margin outlook by 170 basis points.

In addition to over 100 basis points of impact from the ERP implementation, we expect tariffs will drive approximately 290 basis points of decline or $30mn net of product mitigation.

No tariff impact data available.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Fugro reported no direct financial impact from the "Liberation Day" tariffs signed in April 2025. Management clarified that its business operations—which primarily involve offshore geodata services—were not directly subject to the import duties. However, the company emphasized that the tariff environment and related trade policy shifts led to significant market uncertainty, which indirectly pressured its performance throughout 2025 by affecting client investment decisions.

This indirect impact manifested as a substantial contraction in the U.S. offshore wind market. In September 2025, Fugro withdrew its full-year financial guidance, citing a €100M revenue headwind caused by a wave of project postponements and descoping. The Americas region was significantly affected, with organic revenue falling as developers paused offshore wind investments in response to policy shifts and geopolitical volatility. By the end of FY2025, revenue in the Americas segment had declined by €170M compared to the previous year.

To mitigate these headwinds, Fugro launched a comprehensive cost reduction program targeting €120M in annualized savings, which included a workforce reduction of 1,050 positions (approximately 10% of its total headcount). The company also "warm stacked" several geophysical vessels to reduce operating costs and redirected fleet capacity toward more resilient markets in Brazil and the Middle East. Looking ahead into 2026, Fugro remains cautious about its U.S. exposure, specifically stating that it does not expect a near-term recovery in the U.S. offshore wind sector.

Data

(€M)

Note: Group Revenue Impact reflects the guidance withdrawal figure from September 2025. Americas segment revenue is approximate based on reported organic decline.

Source: Fugro 2025 Guidance Update, Transcript FY-2025

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): €100M

Sources

Even though our business operations are not directly impacted by US trade tariffs, current related developments are leading to increased market uncertainty.

A wide range of projects has been affected – with most experiencing postponements into 2026 and some being descoped – resulting in an estimated revenue impact of around EUR 100 million.

As we said, on the U.S. side, we don't expect anything in the short term.

Analysis

Dell Technologies successfully navigated the "Liberation Day" and reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025, reporting record financial results for the fiscal year that largely defied initial market fears of a significant profit impact. While the company's share price initially plunged nearly 19% on the announcement due to its reliance on international manufacturing, the actual financial headwind was minimized by swift regulatory exemptions and proactive pricing strategies. Specifically, computers and various electronic parts—which constitute the bulk of Dell's product portfolio—were granted exemptions from the new tariff regime on April 11, 2025, just days after the initial baseline tariffs were established.

Management's primary strategy for managing remaining tariff exposures has been treating them as standard input costs to be passed through to customers. During the first nine months of Fiscal 2026, Dell leveraged its global supply chain agility to mitigate direct costs and adjusted its pricing models to maintain margin stability. For example, the company implemented broad pricing resets in its server business in December 2025 and its PC business in January 2026 to reflect higher input costs. By June 2025, management confirmed that all known tariff-related impacts were fully embedded in the company's financial guidance.

The company's strong performance in the AI-optimized server market further insulated its bottom line from broader trade policy uncertainty. Dell ended Fiscal 2026 with record revenue of $113.5B and a record non-GAAP EPS of $10.3, suggesting that any residual tariff costs not covered by exemptions were successfully absorbed or offset by strong demand and pricing power in its Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG). While the company continues to list tariffs as a macroeconomic risk in its filings, it has not reported a material net financial loss attributable to these measures after accounting for its mitigation efforts.

As of today, Dell remains focused on securing its supply chain against ongoing geopolitical volatility and has guided for significant revenue growth in Fiscal 2027. The company's ability to maintain mid-single-digit operating margins in its booming AI server business, despite the complex trade environment, underscores the effectiveness of its "pass-through" and "agility" strategy. Management has indicated that it will continue to monitor trade protection measures and respond with disciplined pricing to protect shareholder value.

Sources

However, we treat a tariff as an input cost, and so as I think through an input cost increase, I will have to ultimately pass that through to the customer, and so we'll work through that and navigate through that.

Everything that we know about tariffs is embedded in our guide. I know it surprises a lot of people that everything that we know about tariffs is embedded in our guide... but that's just kind of like what we do.

We continue to leverage the agility and scale of our world-class supply chain to mitigate impacts of tariffs and will continue to respond to changing market conditions as needed.

Analysis

Autodesk management has characterized the April 2025 reciprocal and Liberation Day tariffs as a source of market uncertainty that is generally "toxic to business," but has maintained that the company's software-centric model is resilient to direct trade policy shocks. In early 2025, CEO Andrew Anagnost emphasized that while hyperbolic and rapidly changing policy decisions create a difficult environment for customers in the construction and manufacturing sectors, Autodesk’s distributed business model allows it to adapt more effectively than businesses with heavy physical import dependencies. By mid-2025, management indicated that customers were coping with the new trade environment and that the company had not observed significant "red flags" or material demand destruction specifically attributable to the tariff regime.

The company's primary focus throughout the post-tariff period has been on internal sales and go-to-market optimization rather than external trade headwinds. While the FY2027 guidance incorporates a level of "prudence" to account for potential disruption, this risk is specifically tied to the restructuring of customer-facing sales functions and not to broader macroeconomic or tariff-related impacts. Autodesk has not quantified a direct financial headwind from the tariffs on its top or bottom line, suggesting that the direct impact on its software subscription revenue has been negligible compared to other secular and internal drivers.

A significant fiscal offset to broader macroeconomic uncertainty emerged in the form of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), which provides enhanced R&D investment provisions. This legislation is expected to essentially zero out Autodesk's U.S. federal cash tax obligations in FY2027, providing a substantial cash flow tailwind that mitigates other potential cost pressures. Management expects to return to a normalized tax rate in FY2028, but the short-term benefit from this act significantly strengthens the company's free cash flow profile as it navigates the current trade policy landscape.

The company continues to emphasize its transition to a direct transaction model (agency model) as a tool for resilience, allowing for greater control over customer relationships and pricing in volatile environments. This structural change, combined with the lack of direct physical goods in its product portfolio, has allowed Autodesk to avoid the primary margin compression risks facing its manufacturing and construction customers who are more directly exposed to import duties.

Data

Fiscal 2027 Guidance Summary

(Macy's ($M), except per share data)

Source: Transcript FY-2026, Marvin Labs

Sources

Look, the number one thing business wants is certainty. Hyperbolic decisions that change one day and then go a different way the next day, this is toxic to business. Our businesses find ways to adapt... Our business is very resilient and very distributed. We adapt very nicely.

They're all coping and they're all coping quite well at this point. We don't have customers raising additional red flags related to tariffs.

We do not expect to pay meaningful U.S. federal cash tax in fiscal 2027 due to the R&D investment provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The net effect of these discrete cash movements is immaterial to free cash flow in fiscal 2027.

Analysis

Block has reported only isolated financial impacts from the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025. Management specifically identified these impacts as appearing within the Afterpay and buy now, pay later (BNPL) business, where they were described as "isolated" and related to de minimis tax exemption changes. The company has not explicitly attributed its broader hardware or processing cost increases to these specific tariff policies.

The Square segment experienced significant headwinds from hardware costs in the second half of 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2025, hardware costs were cited as a 200 basis point headwind to Square's gross profit growth. This followed the third quarter where hardware cost increases and a decision to increase operational flexibility at a processing partner combined for a similar drag on performance. For the full year 2025, the gross loss on hardware widened to $126.2 million from $82.4 million in 2024, driven by a 38% increase in hardware costs that outpaced a 30% increase in hardware revenue.

Looking forward, Block expects a continued spread between gross profit and Gross Payment Volume (GPV) growth in the first half of 2026. This variability is anticipated to be driven primarily by ongoing hardware costs, which the company views as a customer acquisition investment to win larger, more retentive sellers. The overall impact of the reciprocal tariffs on Block's core hardware lineup was likely mitigated by federal exemptions for various electronic products and components signed in mid-April 2025, which retroactively applied to computers and smartphones.

The company's primary strategy to offset hardware-related headwinds involves increasing software attach rates and evolving pricing and packaging. By focusing on these high-margin software solutions, Block intends to ensure that hardware continues to serve its role as an entry point for sellers while maintaining attractive total cost of ownership and overall ecosystem profitability.

Data

Square Hardware Performance Detail

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Annual Report FY-2025

Square Gross Profit Growth Headwinds (4Q25)

(Basis Points)

Source: Transcript FY-2025

Sources

We saw only isolated impacts from tariffs and sort of the de minimis tax exemption changes that appeared in our buy now, pay later business.

Hardware costs and higher processing costs were each a 2% point headwind to Square gross profit growth in Q4.

In the first half [of 2026], we anticipate a continued spread between gross profit and GPV growth, with some potential variability driven by hardware costs.

No tariff impact data available.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Sempra (SRE) maintains that the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025 have not significantly altered its long-term financial trajectory or capital deployment strategy. Management's primary assessment is that cross-border energy deliveries, including both electricity and natural gas, are USMCA-compliant goods and therefore remain unaffected by the new trade restrictions. This classification effectively shielded Sempra's extensive cross-border infrastructure in Mexico and its LNG export operations from direct duties on energy commodities.

At the utility level, which represents approximately 95% of Sempra's earnings composition, the company estimated direct tariff exposure at roughly 2%-3% of its planned capital expenditures. For FY2025, with a utility-focused capital budget of approximately $10.6B, this translated to a potential headwind of $212M to $318M. Sempra proactively mitigated these risks by stocking higher levels of critical materials, shifting to domestic suppliers for the majority of its equipment, and diversifying its global supply chain. By the end of FY2025, the company reported adjusted EPS at the high end of its guidance range, indicating that these mitigation efforts were successful in absorbing realized costs within existing financial targets.

Sempra Infrastructure also utilized strategic measures to protect its major LNG projects. For the Port Arthur LNG Phase I project, management estimated remaining tariff exposure at only 1% of total capital costs, supported by the fact that 90% of project spending is directed toward U.S. suppliers and contractors. Furthermore, the company utilized foreign trade zones (FTZs) to preemptively admit materials and equipment into the U.S. prior to the tariff's implementation, thereby avoiding higher duty costs. For future projects like Port Arthur Phase II, which reached a positive Final Investment Decision (FID) in July 2025, the company secured firm pricing and incorporated anticipated trade costs into its $12B+ project budget to ensure target returns remain intact.

Despite the broader trade environment, Sempra's capital allocation continues to shift toward Texas, where it launched a record $65B five-year capital plan. Management remains confident that the company's focus on regulated utility investments and its success in fortressing its balance sheet through capital recycling—such as the $10B sale of a 45% stake in Sempra Infrastructure Partners—provides sufficient flexibility to navigate any residual trade-related inflationary pressures without requiring new common equity issuances through 2030.

Data

Estimated Tariff Exposure and Mitigation Impact

The following table outlines the estimated gross tariff exposure across Sempra's primary business segments as identified by management during the initial rollout of the April 2025 trade measures.

Source: 1Q-2025 Transcript, Annual Report FY-2025, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $330M–$430M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $350M–$450M

Sources

Our current understanding is that energy, as defined as a cross-border electric and natural gas deliveries, is a USMCA-compliant good and is therefore unaffected by tariffs. As a result, we do not currently anticipate significant impacts from cross-border energy transactions.

I would say right from the top, I think this remains a fluid environment for all industries, but I think we're in good shape here, and any type of impact from tariffs, I think, falls well within our established guidance.

At Port Arthur LNG, approximately 90% of our spend is with U.S. suppliers and contractors. [...] we're also using foreign trade zones to mitigate tariff impacts, and Train 1 steel was fully sourced domestically.

Analysis

Schneider Electric is actively managing significant headwinds from U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, primarily through aggressive pricing actions and supply chain reconfiguration. Management initially identified a potential gross exposure of hundreds of millions of dollars in early 2025, shifting its focus from previous Mexico-specific tariffs to the broader reciprocal tariff environment. While the company operates a "multi-hub" industrial structure that naturally limits cross-border exposure, the scale of the 2025 tariffs has required proactive mitigation to preserve profitability.

Financial impacts became evident in the first half of 2025, with a 90 basis point contraction in gross margins attributed to adverse pricing dynamics, mix effects, and tariff-related cost increases. Despite these headwinds, the company maintained robust organic revenue growth of 8.3% in the second quarter, suggesting that demand, particularly in the Energy Management segment and data center vertical, remains resilient enough to absorb some cost pass-throughs.

The company's mitigation strategy centers on price increases, particularly in North America, where the impact is most concentrated. By late 2025, management indicated that while pricing actions were taking effect, they did not expect to fully offset the combined impact of tariffs and inflation for the full year. This resulted in an anticipated uptick in tariff-related costs in the fourth quarter. The company continues to leverage its diversified geographic footprint and local supply chains in India and other hubs to reduce its reliance on single-source trade corridors affected by the new regulations.

Data

Estimated Tariff Impact Summary

Source: 1Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary, 2Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): €174M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $200M–$500M

Sources

Potential tariff exposure could impact the company by hundreds of millions of dollars, prompting preemptive profitability preservation measures.

Net-net, we don't expect to fully offset... the impacts of both inflation and tariffs [in 2025].

We are seeing our actions in pricing take some effect in Q3... we know with the impact of the tariffs.

Analysis

NVIDIA experienced significant financial impacts from U.S. trade actions and export restrictions introduced in April 2025, which included new licensing requirements for advanced AI chips and reciprocal tariffs. The most immediate and severe impact was the effective cessation of H20 chip shipments to China, a product line specifically designed to comply with previous U.S. export controls. On April 9, 2025, the U.S. government informed NVIDIA that a license was now required for these exports, causing a rapid collapse in demand and leading the company to record a massive inventory-related charge.

The company recognized a $4.54 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (1Q-2026) for excess inventory and purchase obligations associated with the H20 product line (Quarterly Report 1Q-2026). This charge had a dramatic effect on GAAP gross margins, which fell to 60.5% in 1Q-2026, down from 73.0% in the preceding quarter. While NVIDIA has since received limited licenses to ship certain H20 products, generating approximately $60 million in revenue in FY-2026, the volume remains a small fraction of previous levels (Annual Report FY-2026).

Beyond the one-time inventory hit, the restrictions created a substantial revenue headwind. NVIDIA's outlook for 2Q-2026 reflected an estimated $8.0 billion loss in H20 revenue directly attributable to these new trade limitations. For fiscal year 2027, the company stated that it is not assuming any data center compute revenue from China in its financial guidance, representing a continued top-line constraint compared to the historical 20-25% revenue contribution from that market (Transcript FY-2026).

Forward-looking cost impacts include a specific 25% tariff on H200 products shipped to China under the new licensing program. These products are required to undergo an inspection process within the United States prior to shipment, which triggers the 25% tariff upon their initial importation into the U.S. for that inspection (Annual Report FY-2026). To mitigate these risks, NVIDIA is diversifying its supply chain into the U.S. and Latin America to add resiliency and has strategically stockpiled inventory to meet demand beyond the next several quarters. Despite these headwinds, management maintains that the fundamental demand for AI infrastructure remains robust enough to drive sequential growth throughout the coming year.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except margin)

*Non-GAAP Gross Margin excludes the impact of the H20 inventory charge and other acquisition-related costs. Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $8.0B
• Cost Impact (Historic): $4.5B

Sources

In April 2025, the USG informed us that a license is required for exports of our H20 product into the China market. As a result of these requirements, we incurred a $4.5 billion charge in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 associated with H20 for excess inventory and purchase obligations.

This outlook reflects a loss in H20 revenue of approximately $8.0 billion due to the recent export control limitations.

Any H200 shipped under the new licensing program will be subject to a 25% tariff upon importation into the United States.

No tariff impact data available.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Salesforce has not reported any material negative financial impact from the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025. As a provider of cloud-based software and digital services, the company’s primary business model is largely insulated from the direct costs associated with physical import duties. While the tech sector broadly faced increased costs for hardware such as servers and networking equipment, Salesforce’s management has not highlighted these as significant headwinds to their operating margins or infrastructure spend.

Management has characterized the 2025 tariff environment as an opportunity to drive demand for its strategic pricing and revenue management tools. During the first quarter of fiscal 2026, executives noted that uncertainty surrounding trade policies and tariff-based pricing in sectors like retail, consumer goods, and manufacturing actually spurred customer investment in Salesforce applications. Specifically, the company’s Revenue Cloud was positioned as a solution to help affected businesses rethink and adjust their pricing strategies in response to shifting market dynamics.

In regions experiencing heightened trade policy uncertainty, such as the United Kingdom and France, Salesforce observed a resurgence in investment as companies sought to leverage digital tools to navigate the economic volatility. The company continues to monitor trade policy as a standard macroeconomic risk factor, but its recent performance—highlighted by strong revenue growth and the successful launch of its Agentforce AI platform—suggests that tariff-related headwinds have been negligible compared to the positive momentum in AI-driven enterprise transformation.

Sources

I think in other sectors maybe where, sort of federal policy, U.S. federal policy is sort of impacting like, tariffs and tariffs-based pricing for retail consumer goods manufacturing. We're working with our customers on all of that to help, you know, with better price, you know, uplift or pricing strategies. Things like our Revenue Cloud are helping companies really rethink the way in which they price and adjust that price point for sort of market dynamics.

Those sort of markets, I think, you know, where tariff policy is sort of putting them on a little bit of uncertainty, we're actually seeing a little bit of, okay, let's invest now, really to make sure that we're sort of, you know, kind of using the applications to help us navigate these moments.

Uncertainty regarding changes in trade policies, including trade wars, the threat or imposition of tariffs or other trade restrictions, as well as any retaliatory actions, on Salesforce.

Analysis

TJX Companies successfully mitigated the impact of the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025 (commonly referred to as the Liberation Day or reciprocal tariffs) throughout its fiscal year 2026. The company identified the second quarter of fiscal 2026 as the most impacted period, primarily due to incremental costs on directly sourced merchandise that were already committed when the additional tariffs were announced in March and April 2025. Despite this headwind, TJX reported that its merchandise margin remained flat in the second quarter and increased in subsequent quarters as its mitigation strategies took full effect.

The company's primary mitigation strategy leverages its opportunistic buying model and flexible supply chain. By maintaining high liquidity and sourcing from a global network of over 21,000 vendors, TJX's buyers were able to negotiate more favorable prices in a marketplace characterized by high inventory availability and vendor "uneasiness" regarding trade policy. Management noted that availability was "off the charts" in many categories, allowing them to buy better and offset the gross headwind of increased duties. Furthermore, TJX selectively adjusted its retail "tickets" (prices) in response to higher prices at traditional retailers, successfully maintaining its target value gap. This pricing strategy was cited as roughly 95% successful across categories, with strong consumer value perception scores confirming that customers accepted the adjustments.

In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated the tariffs originally imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which had formed the basis of the April 2025 duties. While this ruling potentially allows TJX to recover previously paid tariff amounts, a subsequent executive order immediately imposed a "new global tariff" to replace the invalidated ones. As of today, TJX has maintained its guidance for fiscal 2027, assuming it can continue to offset any incremental tariff pressure through its established sourcing, pricing, and operational efficiency initiatives.

Financial performance during the initial tariff period was robust, with the company beating its original fiscal 2026 guidance across all major metrics. Net sales surpassed $60B for the first time, and consolidated comparable sales grew 5%, indicating no observed demand destruction or negative revenue impact from the tariff-related pricing actions. Adjusted pre-tax profit margin expanded to 11.7% for the full year, a 20 basis point increase over fiscal 2025, demonstrating that the company was able to more than offset the "significant incremental pressures" it had initially anticipated.

($B, except per share data)

Source: Annual Report FY-2026, 1Q-2026 Transcript, Marvin Labs

Sources

We're confident in our ability to navigate the current tariff and macro environment in the short term. Importantly, our vision for long-term growth, profitability, and market share opportunities remains the same.

Importantly, we are very pleased with our mitigation strategies, which allowed us to offset all the tariff pressure we saw in the third quarter.

Our full year guidance assumes that we will be able to offset the tariff pressure on our business this year. We're making an assumption that the current level of tariffs on imports into the U.S. will stay in place for the remainder of the year.

Analysis

Diageo faces a significant financial headwind from U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, which the company estimates will have an annualized unmitigated impact of approximately $200M on operating profit. This assessment is based on a 10% tariff on imports from the U.K. and a 15% tariff on imports from Europe, affecting core brands such as Johnnie Walker, Guinness, and Baileys. Management expects to mitigate around half of this impact through supply chain optimization, inventory management, and cost-saving initiatives, resulting in a net annualized headwind of roughly $100M.

A critical buffer for Diageo is the exemption of Mexican and Canadian imports under the USMCA agreement. This protects high-growth and high-margin brands, including Don Julio and Casamigos tequilas as well as Crown Royal Canadian whisky, from these specific tariff actions. Despite this protection, the company has observed a "pull forward" of imports in late FY25 and early 1Q26 as distributors stocked up ahead of the full tariff implementation, a benefit that management expects to "wash out" over the remainder of fiscal 2026.

The tariff impact arrives during a period of broader weakness in the North American spirits market, where organic net sales declined 2.7% in 1Q26. Management attributes this softer performance primarily to economic pressure on disposable income and shifting consumer affordability, rather than tariffs alone. In response, the company is implementing a "selective price repositioning" strategy and an "Accelerate" productivity program aimed at delivering $625M in cost savings over three years to offset these cumulative pressures.

Guidance for fiscal 2026 already incorporates the expected net impact of these tariffs. While the company remains confident in its ability to navigate international trade volatility, the combination of tariff costs and lower consumer confidence in the U.S. has led to a mixed outlook, characterized by positive momentum in Europe and Africa being offset by declines in North America and Chinese white spirits.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Earnings Press Release 1Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Source: Earnings Press Release 1Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $75M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $100M

Sources

Our guidance for the expected impact of tariffs into the US from UK and European imports remains unchanged at c.$200m pre mitigation on an annualised basis.

This assumes that the current tariffs remain at 10% on imports from the UK and 15% on imports from Europe, and that Mexican and Canadian spirits imports remain exempt under USMCA.

We do see the economics and the disposable income as being one of the biggest downward pressures on the spirits category in North America.

Analysis

HP has successfully mitigated the impact of substantial tariffs introduced in April 2025 by leveraging supply chain shifts, cost-reduction programs, and targeted pricing actions. The company experienced a significant headwind in the first half of fiscal 2025, particularly in the second quarter (2Q25), where tariffs resulted in a roughly 12% impact on non-GAAP earnings per share (Transcript 2Q-2025). However, management aggressively implemented its mitigation playbook and achieved a majority offset of these costs by the third quarter, reaching full mitigation by the end of fiscal 2025 (Annual Report FY-2025).

As of early 2026, the trade environment for HP remains dynamic but is no longer a primary driver of cost headwinds compared to rising commodity prices. Following a February 2026 U.S. Supreme Court ruling that found certain emergency tariffs unconstitutional, HP stated it does not expect to be negatively impacted by the subsequent developments, even with the announcement of newer tariffs shortly after the ruling (Transcript 1Q-2026). The company's focus has shifted toward navigating a sharp increase in memory costs, which now represent approximately 35% of the PC bill of materials for fiscal 2026, up from historical levels of 15% to 18% (Transcript AGM 2026).

HP's long-term strategy for trade resilience involves a deep diversification of its manufacturing footprint. By September 2025, HP aimed to have less than 10% of its products sold in North America manufactured in China, a target that was accelerated by the April 2025 tariff announcement. Additionally, the company has removed the U.S. as a distribution hub for certain regions, such as Canada and Latin America, to avoid tariff exposure. While industry-wide pricing actions taken to offset these various costs are expected to weigh on PC unit demand in calendar year 2026, HP expects to drive revenue growth through share gains in premium categories and AI-enabled PCs (Transcript 1Q-2026).

Data

(Macy's ($M), except per share data)

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $100M–$150M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $0

Sources

The net impact of tariffs in 2Q-2025 resulted in a roughly 12% impact on HP's non-GAAP earnings per share.

By the time we exit this year in Q4, we expect to fully mitigate the cost of these current tariffs.

We do not expect to be negatively impacted by the subsequent developments following the court decision.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

American Tower has characterized the impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025, including reciprocal and Liberation Day tariffs, as a manageable factor that does not represent a primary concern for its financial outlook. Management noted during 2025 that while political discussions and uncertainties surrounding trade policy were present, they did not observe significant near-term impacts on the business operations or demand for infrastructure.

The company employs a proactive mitigation strategy to offset potential cost pressures. During the FY2025 earnings call in February 2026, CEO Steven Vondran acknowledged experiencing "a little bit of cost pressure" from tariffs and inflation. However, he emphasized that American Tower is able to pass these costs through to customers, particularly within its Data Centers segment, by adjusting pricing on new business and renewals to maintain stabilized returns in the mid-teens range.

Beyond pricing actions, the company is focusing on operational efficiencies to insulate its margins from supply chain volatility. This includes the implementation of a global unified sourcing and supply chain initiative designed to leverage the company's scale for better pricing advantages and improved inventory management. Management believes these structural improvements, combined with the essential nature of its communications real estate, allow the business to remain resilient against fluctuating input costs driven by trade policy.

In the long term, American Tower monitors the potential effect of tariffs on its customers' capital expenditure plans. While widespread tariffs could theoretically impact carrier spending, the company has not reported any material demand destruction or revenue declines attributable to these trade measures to date. The de-risking of its business through contractual escalators and cost pass-through mechanisms remains the primary defense against tariff-related headwinds.

Sources

I think we've all appreciated over the last several months some of the political discussion around tariffs and other things... uncertainties driven by things like tariffs are not a primary concern for 2025.

Even though you do have a little bit of cost pressure from inflation, tariffs, things like that, we're able to pass that through in the form of higher pricing to keep those stabilized returns kind of in that mid-teens range.

Near-term impacts from tariffs are not being observed. The effect of tariffs on customers is a key long-term consideration.

Analysis

Dollar Tree experienced significant operational and financial disruption following the implementation of reciprocal and "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025. The company initially estimated a gross unmitigated cost increase of approximately $200 million for the balance of fiscal year 2025. To mitigate this headwind, management deployed a strategy involving supplier negotiations, product reengineering, and targeted pricing actions. While these measures helped preserve gross margin, they led to a notable shift in consumer behavior, characterized by a 1.2% decline in store traffic during the fourth quarter of 2025.

The direct costs of implementing these mitigation strategies were substantial, with the company incurring approximately $100 million in fiscal 2025 for re-stickering and price implementation. These costs, primarily in the form of higher store payroll and operational expenses, were spread across the second, third, and fourth quarters. Despite these headwinds, Dollar Tree reported a 60 basis point expansion in full-year gross margin, as the benefits from pricing initiatives and lower freight costs more than offset the higher tariff expenses and markdowns.

Following the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that certain emergency tariffs were unlawful, the company faces continued uncertainty. Although the ruling may provide some cost relief, the administration immediately imposed new temporary tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. Furthermore, Dollar Tree's current inventory still reflects the higher tariff rates capitalized prior to the ruling, meaning any potential financial benefits will not materialize until this inventory cycles through, typically a four-month process.

For fiscal 2026, the company's outlook remains cautious regarding the net impact of trade policy. Management expects gross margins to be roughly flat, as anticipated relief from lower tariff rates is expected to be largely offset by rising freight and fuel costs. While the company anticipates a return to positive traffic as it laps the initial shock of the 2025 pricing actions, it continues to manage its assortment and pricing dynamically to navigate the volatile trade environment.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except margin data)

Source: Earnings Press Release FY-2025, Transcript FY-2025, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $100M–$150M
• Cost Impact (Historic): $200M–$300M
• Revenue Impact (Forward-Looking): $50M–$100M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $150M–$250M

Sources

We successfully navigated unprecedented tariff volatility and demonstrated the flexibility we've gained for responding to future macroeconomic factors via our multi-price assortment.

We absorbed approximately $30mn for re-stickering costs in Q4, bringing the full year total to approximately $100mn. As I'll discuss momentarily, we will cycle the majority of these costs in the current fiscal year.

While there might be some small upside in the early days, although keep in mind, because of the cycle of our inventory, it'll take about four months as the inventory cycles through before we start seeing the benefit of [lower tariffs].

Analysis

Floor & Decor (FND) has been significantly affected by the 2025 tariffs, particularly due to its historical reliance on imported hard surface flooring. In response, the company has aggressively diversified its supply chain to mitigate financial and operational risks. By the end of fiscal 2025, receipts from China dropped to just 3%, a drastic reduction from approximately 50% in 2018 and 18% in 2024. The United States has emerged as the company's largest sourcing country, accounting for 27% of products sold in fiscal 2024. FND now sources from 26 countries and manages over 240 vendors to maintain flexibility.

The financial impact of reciprocal tariffs in fiscal 2025 was described by management as minimal, as the company's inventory turn rate—approximately twice per year—and proactive purchasing before tariff implementation delayed the realization of higher costs. Although higher duties began to impact the company in the fourth quarter of 2025, FND successfully expanded its full-year gross margin to 43.6%, up 30 basis points from 2024. This was achieved through vendor negotiations, favorable product mix, and lower supply chain costs, which more than offset both tariff headwinds and a 70-basis point headwind from distribution center expansions.

Looking ahead to fiscal 2026, FND expects a more substantial, though still "modest," cost impact from tariffs as they become fully embedded in the second half of the year. The company's 2026 gross margin guidance of 43.5% to 43.8% assumes these cost increases will be largely offset by strategic retail pricing actions and continued supply chain productivity. Management maintains that its scale and direct-sourcing model provide a competitive advantage over independent retailers, who may struggle to absorb or mitigate similar tariff-driven cost increases.

To manage ongoing volatility, the company established a Tariff Steering Committee to oversee mitigation efforts, including sourcing shifts and balanced portfolio pricing. While the company is prepared to raise prices to protect margins, it remains cautious about potential category demand destruction if broader inflationary pressures dampen consumer confidence in large-scale home improvement projects. FND's strategy continues to prioritize market share gains through price leadership and assortment innovation, even in a higher-tariff environment.

Data

Sourcing Mix and Margin Trends

FND has drastically reduced its dependency on China since the initial 2018 tariffs, transitioning to a more globally diverse sourcing model.

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Note: FY26E reflects the midpoint of company guidance (43.5%–43.8%). Sourcing percentages for China are based on product receipts.

Source: Annual Report FY-2025, Transcript FY-2025, Transcript 1Q-2025

Sources

Our fiscal year 2026 outlook assumes modest cost increases due to tariffs... we were able to kind of mitigate, you know, a lot of that exposure.

The tariff impact was actually minimal [in FY-2025]... as we get into 2026... it really will impact 2026 a lot more heavily than 2025.

We are prepared to take modest retail pricing actions to help offset the expected impact of tariffs and to manage both margin rate and dollars.

Analysis

Newmont's management has characterized the net impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025 as not material to the company's overall financial performance. During the transition into the new tariff regime in April 2025, leadership highlighted that the company's globally diverse portfolio and strategic supply chain management provided a robust buffer against localized trade volatility. While specific operations in Mexico and Canada were identified as having potential exposure to tariffs on U.S.-sourced components, these pressures did not manifest as significant headwinds in the company's full-year results.

The primary areas of tariff-related pressure were concentrated in parts and consumables for operations outside the U.S. Specifically, the Peñasquito mine in Mexico, along with the Red Chris and Brucejack mines in Canada, were noted for their reliance on parts purchased from the U.S. Additionally, grinding media—a key consumable in mining—was identified as being exposed to rising steel prices. However, Newmont successfully mitigated these risks by leveraging multiple supply chains and sourcing materials from various global locations, which helped to offset regional price spikes.

A significant factor limiting the overall impact is Newmont's cost structure, where labor accounts for approximately 50% of direct costs. Management noted that this portion of the cost base remained unaffected by tariff volatility throughout 2025. Furthermore, while energy represents 15% of costs, its impact was mixed, with natural gas price fluctuations in the U.S. being partially offset by lower prices in Europe. By the end of FY2025, the company had achieved its supply chain synergy targets, further reinforcing its ability to absorb incremental cost pressures without impacting its broader financial guidance or capital allocation framework.

Data

Operations with Potential Tariff Exposure

Source: Transcript FY-2025, 1Q25 Earnings Transcript

Sources

The two operations, the two areas that may start to see some tariff pressure would be Peñasquito with some parts that you might buy from the U.S., or Red Chris and Brucejack that might buy some parts from the U.S. We are monitoring that closely. In the overall scheme of things, nothing material.

One of the benefits of having a globally diverse portfolio is we can manage these sorts of risks across our global business. We're well placed from that perspective.

We're seeing no particular impacts in half of our cost base around some of the tariff volatility... 15% of our cost is energy. If anything, we're seeing natural gas prices reduced in Europe.

Analysis

Walmart navigated a significant and fluid trade environment following the introduction of broad U.S. tariffs in April 2025, which management characterized as a "moving target" and a "Trade Emergency" period. The company observed that while more than two-thirds of what it sells in the U.S. is domestically sourced, the remaining third of imported products—sourced primarily from China, Mexico, Canada, Vietnam, and India—faced immediate cost pressure starting in late April 2025 and accelerating through May. Higher tariffs particularly impacted categories like toys, electronics, and imported food staples such as bananas, avocados, and coffee.

To mitigate these headwinds, Walmart employed a strategy of managing mix across items and categories while leveraging its newer, higher-margin profit streams in advertising and membership fees. Management noted that while they aimed to absorb some costs to protect food prices, the magnitude of the tariffs necessitated higher prices for some general merchandise items. Despite these efforts, Walmart cited a 300 basis point combined headwind to its Adjusted Operating Income growth for FY2026, driven by the "bumpy tariff environment" and elevated casualty claims.

A pivotal shift in the tariff landscape occurred on February 20, 2026, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that broad global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unconstitutional. As a lead claimant in the resulting legal process, Walmart is positioned to reclaim billions in duties paid during the 2025-2026 period. Analyst estimates suggest a potential cash refund windfall of $3.5B to $5.0B over the next 18 months, which could provide significant liquidity for further investment or shareholder returns.

Looking forward to FY2027, Walmart's guidance assumes a continuation of underlying business momentum while lapping the initial tariff impacts in the second quarter. The company remains cautious about the stability of trade policy, noting that a restoration of dramatically higher tariff levels could jeopardize its ability to grow year-over-year earnings. However, the company maintains that its diversified business model and scale position it to manage these pressures as well or better than any other retailer.

Data

($B, except percentage data)

Source: FY-2026 Earnings Transcript, 1Q-2026 Earnings Transcript, Finterra (2026)

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $3.5B–$5.0B
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $1.0B–$2.0B

Sources

The cost pressure from all the tariff-impacted markets started in late April, and it accelerated in May. ... even at the reduced levels, the higher tariffs will result in higher prices.

We grew Adjusted operating income 5.4%, even with a 300 basis point headwind from increased claims expenses and navigating a bumpy tariff environment.

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that broad global tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unconstitutional. Walmart... is lead claimant for refunds on billions in duties paid.

Analysis

Following the introduction of "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs in April 2025, John Deere has experienced a significant increase in production costs and margin pressure. For fiscal year 2025, the company reported a pre-tax tariff impact of nearly $600M, primarily driven by duties on imports from Europe, India, and Japan, as well as increased costs for steel and aluminum. This headwind intensified in the first quarter of 2026, with direct pre-tax tariff expenses reaching $361M, which was the primary driver for a decrease in net income during the period. The company currently projects a total pre-tax tariff hit of $1.2B for the full fiscal year 2026, representing a $600M incremental increase over the previous year.

The tariff impact is particularly acute in the Construction and Forestry (CNF) segment, which faces exposure from road building equipment manufactured in Germany and excavators sourced through supply agreements from Japan. Additionally, the segment relies on a mature supply base in China for approximately 40% of earthmoving components. While the Production and Precision Agriculture (PPA) segment is less exposed to finished good imports, it faces a projected 150bps margin headwind for FY2026 due to component and material costs. Management has noted that while customer demand remains resilient in some areas, the uncertainty surrounding trade policy has weighed on new equipment replacement demand as producers wait for further clarity on trade deals.

To mitigate these impacts, John Deere is implementing several supply chain and pricing strategies. The company is transitioning its excavator production to the United States, with new Deere-designed and U.S.-manufactured models expected to reduce dependence on Japanese sourcing over the next few years. On the pricing front, the company aims to remain price-cost positive in 2026 by taking measured price increases, such as the 3% adjustment seen in early order programs for the PPA business. A significant recent development occurred on February 20, 2026, when the United States Supreme Court invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which may provide future tariff relief and the potential recovery of duties previously paid. John Deere is currently evaluating the financial implications of this ruling.

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $961M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $1.2B

Sources

So it's $1.2bn is the pre-tax tariff hit in 2026. That's about $600mn incremental from the $600 million that we saw in 2025.

The direct impact of incremental tariffs incurred by us was $361 in the first quarter of 2026, excluding the impact of tariffs on our suppliers and market demand.

Incremental import tariffs adversely affected the cost of our products and components beginning in the third quarter of 2025 and are expected to continue to do so in 2026.

Analysis

Rio Tinto reported that U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025—specifically the cancellation of the 10% Section 232 aluminum exemption for Canada in March 2025—had a measurable gross impact on its primary aluminum business. In the first half of 2025 alone, the company recorded $321M in gross costs associated with these tariffs on 723,000 tonnes of aluminum shipped to the U.S. market. Despite this gross headwind, management emphasized that the net impact on the group's financials was very limited, as higher regional price premiums in the U.S. (Midwest premiums) substantially offset the additional duties paid.

The company's commercial strategy involved proactively optimizing its vertically integrated position to manage the changing trade landscape. By July 2025, the Midwest premium reached approximately $855 per tonne (duty-paid), which provided significant compensation for the realized tariff costs of $444 per tonne on U.S.-bound sales. While the 50% reciprocal tariffs initially created cost pressures, the rapid adaptation of market premiums allowed Rio Tinto to maintain its margins and double its aluminum business profitability year-over-year in 1H 2025, supported by stronger bauxite and alumina pricing.

In the copper segment, the implementation of 50% U.S. tariffs on imported copper starting in August 2025 was viewed as a strategic opportunity. As one of only two operating copper smelters in the United States, Rio Tinto's Kennecott operations were positioned to benefit from protected domestic pricing and increased profitability. Management noted that the administration's focus on domestic resource security also accelerated the priority status of the Resolution Copper project in Arizona, where a final environmental impact statement was published in mid-2025.

By February 2026, the legal and regulatory environment for these tariffs shifted significantly following a U.S. court ruling against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose the broad reciprocal tariffs. This development, combined with the company's successful mitigation strategies, further reduced the long-term financial risk posed by the 2025 tariff actions. Rio Tinto continues to monitor the "dynamic" trade environment, but the net impact as of early 2026 remains manageable within its diversified portfolio.

H1 2025 Aluminum Tariff Impact Summary

(Macy's ($M), except per unit data)

Source: Earnings Press Release 1H-2025, Transcript 1H-2025, Marvin Labs. Note: Figures refer specifically to primary aluminum.

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $321M

Sources

Our commercial team continues to proactively optimize our vertically integrated position in the changing tariff environment. Today, the Midwest premium is substantially offsetting the tariff.

We have now learned a lot over the first six months and conclude that we can actually manage the aluminum situation... the impact is actually not very significant.

Copper tariffs represent an opportunity for us. Because... we have actually had a smelter that we have not made a lot of money on for a long period of time at Kennecott... it should become much more profitable from the tariffs immediately.

Analysis

Nestlé was significantly affected by U.S. tariffs introduced in early 2025, which contributed to a total headwind of 300 basis points for the group during the fiscal year. The specific net impact of tariffs on the underlying trading operating profit (UTOP) margin was estimated at a couple of tens of basis points (approximately 20–30 bps) for the full year 2025. This impact was more pronounced in the second half of the year as short-term mitigation efforts from the first half were lapped and commodity cost phasing began to flow through the P&L.

The company's coffee and confectionery businesses were the primary areas of exposure. Specifically, imported products such as Nespresso and certain soluble coffee lines were impacted. Nestlé managed these headwinds through a combination of pricing actions and supply chain adjustments. In the first half of 2025, Nespresso prices were increased by 3.2% to address inflation and tariff costs, although this led to short-term volume (RIG) elasticities in certain markets.

Nestlé's mitigation strategy relies heavily on its extensive local manufacturing footprint; approximately 90% of the products the company sells in the U.S. are manufactured within the country, which shields the majority of its portfolio from direct import levies. Other mitigating actions include "load balancing" in sourcing and the implementation of the "Fuel for Growth" efficiency program, which over-delivered CHF 1.1 billion in savings during 2025 to help offset the broader 300 bps headwind from tariffs, input costs, and foreign exchange.

Looking ahead to 2026, Nestlé expects tariffs to remain a disproportionate headwind in the first half of the year as the company compares against the pre-tariff period of early 2025. Management has integrated its Nutrition and Health Science businesses to further drive synergies and scale, which is intended to help maintain its UTOP margin guidance of at or above 16.0% despite the ongoing impact of these trade measures.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except margin bps)

Source: Transcript FY-2025, Transcript H1-2025, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): CHF176M–CHF264M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): CHF176M–CHF264M

Sources

The tariffs impact for Nestlé for the full year 2025 is expected to be a couple of tens of basis points for the group.

The second half decline is a consequence of the gross margin dynamic, along with an increased impact from FX and tariffs.

The other thing to have in mind is tariffs, 'cause there are still tariffs enacted. So that, from a cost perspective, will disproportionately impact the first half [of 2026], 'cause we're lapping a period where there were no tariffs in the prior year.

Analysis

Southern Company (SO) has managed the impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025 with minimal disruption to its financial performance. During the Transcript 1Q-2025, management initially assessed a potential 1% to 3% cost increase on its base capital plan due to the new trade measures. However, the company clarified that the upper end of this range reflected a short period of elevated tariffs that only lasted a few days, and it ultimately concluded that tariffs would not have a material impact on its long-term financial forecast.

The company's primary mitigation strategy involved leveraging its extensive supplier network to ensure compliance with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which allowed a majority of materials sourced from Mexico and Canada to qualify for zero tariffs. Additionally, Southern Company utilized existing project contingencies, contractual provisions, and diversified vendor relationships to proactively offset potential cost pressures. These efforts were successful, as evidenced by the company achieving adjusted earnings at the very top of its guidance range for the full year 2025.

Despite the initial cost concerns, Southern Company significantly expanded its five-year capital plan by $18B to a total of $81B by the end of FY2025. This growth was driven by unprecedented demand from large load customers, particularly in the data center sector, rather than tariff-related cost escalations. The company's vertically integrated model and constructive regulatory framework in the Southeast have provided further insulation, allowing for rate stability and effective cost recovery mechanisms. Overall, the company maintains that its financial outlook remains strong and that any remaining tariff exposure is manageable within its disciplined execution framework.

Data

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $630M–$1.9B

Sources

For our base capital plan, we currently estimate a range of 1%-3% of potential cost increases, with the top of the range representing the higher end of tariffs that existed for only a few days last month.

Overall, we do not expect a material impact to our forecast. Our financial outlook remains strong, and we remain focused on disciplined execution.

Southern Company does not expect a material impact to its business from tariffs.

No tariff impact data available.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Glencore has characterized the "Liberation Day" and reciprocal U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025 as a source of significant market volatility and "noise" rather than a material net financial headwind. While the initial introduction of tariffs in early April 2025 caused sharp dislocations across commodity supply chains—with copper prices dipping to a low of approximately $8,500/t and the company's share price hitting a year-to-date low of 230p on April 7—management has stated that these events ultimately presented opportunities for the company's marketing business to capitalize on re-oriented trade flows and regional price arbitrage Transcript 1H-2025.

The company's marketing department successfully navigated the period of heightened uncertainty by maintaining a "risk-off" positioning and avoiding speculative bets on tariff outcomes. CEO Gary Nagle noted that once the tariffs were implemented and the initial volatility settled, the company was able to leverage its global network to route commodities into the most logical and profitable markets. By the end of FY2025, Glencore reported that its marketing EBIT had risen to $2.9B, materially higher than the prior year's comparable performance and reaching the midpoint of its upgraded long-term guidance range, despite the "noise" from U.S. trade policies Transcript FY-2025.

In the industrial assets segment, the impact of the tariffs was largely overshadowed by broader commodity price trends and production sequencing. Copper prices, which saw initial volatility in April 2025, recovered strongly to end the year at approximately $12,500/t, driven in part by the same geopolitical drivers that influenced the trade policies. Glencore also noted that uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs led to a "front-loading" of Chinese steel production and exports in some sectors, which indirectly supported demand for certain bulks earlier in the year Glencore 2025 Annual Report.

Glencore’s primary mitigation strategy involved utilizing its arbitrage capabilities to manage dislocations in the copper and zinc markets. The company emphasized that it was positioned to remain profitable regardless of the specific tariff outcomes, focusing on logistical optimization and supply-demand imbalances created by the trade restrictions. By the end of 2025, management confirmed the company had "come out of it just fine," with no material negative impact on the bottom line attributable to the April 2025 tariff event Transcript 1H-2025.

Data

Note: FY24A Marketing EBIT is estimated ex-Viterra based on management commentary. FY25A represents the actual reported figure.

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Sources

U.S. tariffs across the commodities can create these dislocations. We now have a bit more certainty around the tariffs... that often presents opportunities for us, and we will capitalize on that through our world-class marketing business.

We positioned ourselves around ensuring that we would be profitable around any outcome, regardless of what the 232 showed. We now know what it was, and we came out of it just fine.

Metals were the key beneficiaries of these drivers, with copper rising from a low of c.$8,500/t amid the Liberation Day tariff volatility in early April, to end the year around $12,500/t.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Palo Alto Networks has reported that the direct impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025, including reciprocal and "Liberation Day" tariffs, has been immaterial to its overall business. The company maintains a flexible supply chain and has historically managed trade-related cost pressures through a combination of manufacturing geographic shifts and supply chain expertise. During its 4Q25 earnings call in August 2025, management explicitly stated that the impact of these tariffs on the business remained immaterial at that time.

By early 2026, the company observed a "marginal impact" on its product cost of goods sold (COGS), which was primarily attributed to higher pricing for memory and storage components. While these inflationary pressures are part of a broader supply chain dynamic, the company has factored these considerations into its forward-looking guidance. To mitigate any persistent cost headwinds, management indicated that pricing actions were being implemented to take effect in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

The company's significant and growing mix of software-based revenue provides a natural structural hedge against hardware-specific tariffs. As of 2Q26, approximately 45% of total product revenue was driven by software form factors, up from 38% in the prior year. This shift reduces the relative portion of the business exposed to physical import duties on hardware appliances. Furthermore, the company leverages its scale to negotiate favorable procurement arrangements, which helps buffer the impact of component price increases on its gross margins.

Despite the recent uptick in hardware demand, which saw its strongest performance in several quarters during 2Q26, Palo Alto Networks has maintained its focus on a platformization strategy that prioritizes cloud-delivered and software-based security. This strategic orientation, combined with proactive pricing and supply chain management, is expected to continue insulating the company's consolidated margins from significant tariff-related volatility.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except percentages)

Source: Earnings Press Release 2Q-2026, Transcript 2Q-2026

Sources

As a result, the impact to tariffs of our business have been immaterial.

Now, turning to the supply chain, we observed a marginal impact on product COGS this quarter from higher memory and storage pricing, but we believe we are well positioned to manage through these dynamics.

Pricing actions taking effect later this fiscal year will help offset corresponding price-cost increases. We have proactively factored these considerations into our Q3 and full year outlook.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Medtronic faces significant financial headwinds from U.S. "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025. The company estimated a total net tariff impact of approximately $185M for fiscal year 2026, which primarily affects the cost of products sold (COGS). During the third quarter of 2026, the company recorded a specific impact of $93M, representing a 110 basis point headwind on adjusted gross margins. Management noted that the impact for the fourth quarter of 2026 is expected to be roughly $75M.

Looking ahead to fiscal year 2027, Medtronic expects the annual headwind to increase to approximately $300M as the full carryover effect of the tariffs takes hold. This estimate assumes a consistent quarterly impact of roughly $75M. The company's operating margin guidance for fiscal 2026 includes a roughly 50 basis point reduction attributable to these tariffs. Despite these costs, the company has maintained its expectation for high single-digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2027, intending to offset tariff pressures through pricing, cost efficiency programs, and supply chain adjustments.

Medtronic's mitigation strategy involves rerouting products to optimize tariff exposure and adjusting its global supply chain. However, leadership has cautioned that shifting regulated medical device manufacturing is a multi-year process requiring extensive regulatory approvals at each site, limiting the company's ability to move production quickly. Additionally, the company noted a material impact on exports into the Chinese market, where trade barriers have hindered sales performance.

On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that certain tariff policies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were unconstitutional. While this ruling could potentially alleviate some of the projected headwinds, Medtronic's most recent financial reporting (dated February 24, 2026) continues to include the $185M and $300M estimates as it monitors the evolving legal and regulatory landscape. The company remains on an "offensive footing," prioritizing research and development and M&A to drive growth despite these macro challenges.

Data

(Macy's ($M), except basis points. FY26-FY27 reflect company guidance as of February 2026.) Source: Quarterly Report 3Q-2026, Transcript 3Q-2026, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $185M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $300M

Sources

We anticipate a tariff impact to COGS of approximately $185mn, including $75mn in the Q4. Including tariffs, we expect fiscal 2026 gross margin decrease of roughly 30 basis points. Our fiscal 2026 operating margin is expected to be... down about 50 basis points, including the tariff impact.

We will have the carryover from the tariffs, the tariff settlement, going into next year. You know, this year we had about 2.5 quarters of tariffs, and that will carry over into the full year. I think the way to think about that is about $75mn per quarter. So on a full year basis, it means around $300mn of headwind versus the $185 we had in... 2026.

Based on current rates as of February 17, 2026, we estimate the pre-tax net tariff impact to be $185 million in fiscal year 2026... Further escalation or expansion of trade barriers could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that President Trump's tariff policies under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act are unconstitutional.

Analysis

BHP was exposed to significant volatility following the introduction of the "Liberation Day" tariffs in April 2025, which initially drove U.S. tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s. The immediate impact was characterized by substantial price momentum and the front-loading of demand as customers sought to secure supply ahead of the new trade barriers. In the copper market, this created a significant premium for U.S.-based COMEX prices over the London Metals Exchange, incentivizing global cathode shipments to the United States.

The direct financial impact on BHP was largely mitigated by subsequent policy adjustments and exemptions. The U.S. government eventually excluded copper cathode from the reciprocal tariff list, which effectively closed the price differential between regional exchanges and prevented a direct cost headwind on BHP’s primary copper exports. By the end of 2025, the company reported that demand had slowed as the effects of earlier front-loading waned, resulting in a normalization of trade flows.

Despite the period of extreme policy uncertainty, BHP reported a record half-year for its copper business in 1H FY2026. The "threat of tariffs" and associated price volatility actually contributed to record copper prices during the period, providing a favorable $2.1B EBITDA tailwind from higher realized prices in copper, gold, and silver. Management maintained that the company's commodities—particularly copper, iron ore, and potash—are resilient to diverse trade scenarios due to their critical role in global infrastructure and the energy transition.

BHP’s geographic and commodity diversification served as a primary mitigation strategy. While the U.S. trade policy remained volatile throughout 2025, BHP observed resilient demand in other key markets, including China and India. The company noted that "more favorable trade outcomes than expected" had supported healthy commodity demand through the end of the 2025 calendar year, allowing the group to capture high margins despite the broader geopolitical backdrop.

Sources

This has taken a marked step up in recent months, and we're seeing U.S. tariffs higher now than they've been since the 1930s. That has pretty significant implications for the global economy.

Our strong operational performance is reflected in our healthy set of financial results... This enabled us to fully capture the benefit of higher copper, gold, and iron ore prices.

Commodities saw healthy demand in 2025, supported by more favorable trade outcomes than expected, supportive policy, and improved confidence.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

L'Oréal has successfully managed the impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, primarily through its diversified global manufacturing footprint and strong pricing power in the luxury segment. The company faced a 15% tariff on beauty imports from the European Union to the United States, which disproportionately affected luxury fragrance margins. Despite these headwinds, L'Oréal achieved a record gross margin of 74.3% in FY2025, as the 20 basis point negative impact from tariffs was more than offset by favorable price-mix and cost efficiencies.

The company's primary mitigation strategy centers on its localized production capabilities. L'Oréal maintains a significant manufacturing presence in North America and Europe, which provides inherent protection against import duties compared to competitors who rely more heavily on cross-border shipping. For example, while some competitors source approximately 80% of their makeup products from China, L'Oréal's NYX Professional Makeup brand has only 20% exposure, creating a competitive advantage as rivals are forced to implement larger price increases.

Looking forward to FY2026, management expects a slightly higher tariff headwind since the duties will be in effect for the full fiscal year. Initial estimates from mid-2025 suggested a potential margin headwind of up to 40 basis points. To further insulate the business, the company has developed contingency plans for production relocation and is engaged in ongoing supplier negotiations and selective pricing adjustments to preserve gross margin integrity. Management remains confident that its structural advantages and premium positioning will allow it to continue outperforming the broader beauty market despite the evolving trade environment.

Data

Estimated Tariff Impact on Gross Margin

Source: FY-2025 Earnings Transcript, 2Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): €88M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): €88M–€176M

Sources

On a full year basis, tariffs had a negative 20 basis points impact, which was more than offset by a strong contribution from price and mix, as well as cost efficiencies.

The company faces a 15% tariff on beauty imports from the EU to the US, particularly affecting luxury fragrance margins... The estimated margin impact is less than 40 basis points.

NYX Professional Makeup's reduced dependence on Chinese imports (approximately 20% versus competitors' 80%) creates a competitive advantage, potentially benefiting from competitors' price increases and driving market share gains.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis

Wynn Resorts experienced a bifurcated impact from the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, with management choosing to prioritize capital preservation over absorbing elevated project costs. The primary consequence was the suspension of approximately $375M in planned U.S. capital expenditures, including the major Encore Tower room renovation in Las Vegas. Management attributed this decision to the "significant pace of change" in tariff rates, which made it difficult to commit to revised project timings or resource furniture, fixtures, and equipment that were most severely affected by the new levies.

In contrast, the impact on operating expenses (OpEx) was characterized as low and entirely manageable. The most direct pressure was felt in the food and beverage segment, where the company actively worked through alternative sourcing to mitigate higher input costs for impactful items. This proactive supply chain management allowed Wynn to maintain robust EBITDA margins in Las Vegas and Boston, even as wage inflation and other macroeconomic pressures persisted.

The company's international growth pipeline remained largely insulated from the domestic tariff regime. The multi-billion dollar Wynn Al Marjan Island project in the UAE was unaffected because a substantial portion of the required materials had already been "bought out" prior to the tariff introduction. This geographic diversification is a key strategic pillar for the company, as it expects over 55% of its revenues to eventually be generated in non-U.S. dollar-denominated markets, providing a natural hedge against U.S.-specific trade policies.

Wynn's overall financial performance during the tariff period showed resilience, with full-year 2025 revenue remaining flat compared to 2024. While consolidated adjusted property EBITDA declined by approximately $145M for the full year, the vast majority of this headwind ($114M) occurred in the first quarter, prior to the implementation of the April 2025 tariffs. This suggests that the net impact of tariffs on the company's operating profitability during the subsequent nine months was relatively minor, reflecting successful mitigation through pricing and sourcing strategies.

Data

Wynn Resorts Financial Performance Summary

(Macy's ($M))

(Macy's ($M), by Quarter)

¹ Calculated as the difference between full-year actuals and 1Q2025 results.

Source: FY-2025 Earnings Transcript, 1Q-2025 Earnings Transcript, Marvin Labs

Sources

We expect the direct impact of tariffs on OPEX to be low and entirely manageable with most of the impact in the U.S. stemming from food and beverage, where we are actively working through alternative sourcing for the most impactful items.

The current tariff rates have driven us to delay about $375mn of CAPEX projects, including the Encore Tower remodel... While we're staying nimble, the pace of change at the moment is just too significant to commit to revised timing on that CAPEX.

The tariffs aren’t impacting Wynn’s $5.1 billion UAE resort project on Al Marjan Island, where a substantial portion is already bought out.

Analysis

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) reported an immaterial impact from the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025. This assessment, maintained throughout FY2025 and into FY2026 guidance, is attributed to the company's substantial U.S. manufacturing presence and a geographically diversified supply chain. While the broader pharmaceutical industry faced potential headwinds from tariffs on imported active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), Vertex's integrated U.S. operations significantly mitigated its direct exposure.

The company's FY2026 financial guidance explicitly incorporates what management describes as an "immaterial cost impact" based on currently known tariff rates and regulations. Vertex has not disclosed specific dollar-denominated costs or pricing actions taken in response to these tariffs, reinforcing the qualitative assessment that they do not represent a significant drag on net income or operating margins.

Vertex management has noted that the outlook for tariff impacts remains subject to change given the dynamic nature of U.S. trade policy, including potential sector-specific tariffs that could be introduced in the future. However, as of February 2026, the company's diversified supply chain strategy continues to serve as an effective hedge against the reciprocal tariffs established in 2025.

Sources

based on our understanding of current rules, we do not expect a material impact from tariffs given our diversified supply chain and large U.S. manufacturing presence, but this outlook is subject to change.

This guidance also includes an immaterial cost impact from tariffs in 2026 based on currently known tariff rates and regulations.

We continue to expect an immaterial cost impact from tariffs in 2025 based on what we know today, due to our significant U.S. presence and our geographically diverse supply chain.

Analysis

Applied Materials (AMAT) has navigated a "modest" financial headwind from U.S. tariffs introduced around April 2025, commonly referred to as reciprocal or "Liberation Day" tariffs. These tariffs, which included a baseline 10% reciprocal duty on imports, impacted the company's cost structure and gross margins. However, management has effectively mitigated much of this impact through strategic pricing actions, inventory pre-positioning, and leveraging a diversified global manufacturing footprint.

The primary impact has been observed in the company's gross margin. In fiscal 2025, Applied Materials reported a 120-basis-point increase in non-GAAP gross margin to 48.8%, the highest in 25 years. This expansion was driven by "price process improvements" and a favorable product mix, which together more than offset the "modest effect of tariffs." While the company reported a "very small impact" in 2Q25 due to inventory that was pre-tariffed, the headwind became more noticeable in the second half of the fiscal year. To counter rising input costs, the company implemented price adjustments for products where tariff costs could not be mitigated through supply chain shifts.

Mitigation efforts have focused on Applied Materials' "agility in global operations," specifically utilizing its manufacturing hubs in Austin and Singapore to optimize logistics and minimize duty exposure. Furthermore, the enactment of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) on July 4, 2025, provided a significant fiscal offset. The OBBBA increased the domestic semiconductor investment tax credit (ITC) from 25% to 35% and allowed for the immediate expensing of U.S. research costs. As of early 1Q26, the company had recorded $975M in investment tax credits under the CHIPS Act and OBBBA, providing a substantial tailwind to net profitability that helps balance trade-related headwinds.

Despite these tariffs and concurrent export restrictions that limited access to certain segments of the China market, Applied Materials remains optimistic about its forward trajectory. Management expects to grow its semiconductor equipment business by more than 20% in calendar 2026, fueled by AI-driven demand in leading-edge logic and DRAM. The company continues to project "sustainable improvements in margins" as it shares in the value created by its most advanced technology inflections, effectively pricing through the "modest" ongoing tariff environment.

Data

Gross Margin and Trade Impact Summary

(Macy's ($M), except percentages)

Source: Transcript 1Q-2026, Annual Report FY-2025, Quarterly Report 1Q-2026, Marvin Labs. FY2025 Margin expansion was net of modest tariff headwinds.

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $30M–$60M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $50M–$100M

Sources

I do feel like the low 48s, probably right around 48.2%, 48.3%, is the right level where the company's operating at this point. That has modest impact from tariffs.

We shipping a richer mix of advanced systems and increased prices broadly, helping to more than offset cost increases... the real driver [of margin] during the year was the price process improvements. The cost reductions were offset to some degree by tariff headwinds.

Our guidance for Q3 really reflects being able to manage that environment very well and having the flexibility to manage it very well.... we'll be making price adjustments for the things that cannot be managed from a tariff perspective.

Analysis

Airbnb's exposure to the tariffs introduced in April 2025 is primarily indirect, manifesting through broader macroeconomic pressures on travel demand rather than direct material costs. As a digital marketplace for services, the company does not maintain significant physical inventory subject to import duties. However, the implementation of a 10% baseline tariff and higher reciprocal duties on major trading partners has contributed to a weaker economic outlook and softening consumer sentiment in the U.S., which management identified as a factor in its moderated growth projections for the second half of 2025.

The impact of these trade policies has been reflected in a deceleration of Airbnb's revenue growth. After reporting 11% growth (adjusted for FX and calendar effects) in 1Q 2025, the company observed a softening in U.S. demand, leading to 10% growth in 2Q and 3Q 2025. Guidance for 4Q 2025 suggests further deceleration to a range of 7% to 10%. Market analysts noted that these tariffs are likely to weigh on travel demand due to the resulting inflationary pressure on household budgets, which led to a 3% to 4% reduction in fair value estimates for the online travel sector in early April 2025.

Airbnb's operational costs have seen minor increases that may be partially attributable to the broader supply chain effects of tariffs on hardware and technology infrastructure. In the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the company reported a $24 million increase in data hosting services and a $3 million increase in expensed software and equipment. While these figures represent a fraction of Airbnb's multibillion-dollar cost base, they indicate the subtle pass-through of tariff-related costs from its technology vendors.

To mitigate these headwinds, Airbnb has focused on enhancing its direct-to-consumer model and expanding into higher-margin segments like "Experiences" and localized travel services. Management has also highlighted the company's limited exposure to international inbound travel disruptions, as revenue from foreign travelers to the U.S. remains an immaterial portion of the overall mix. The company's ongoing aggressive implementation of AI customer service agents, which has already reduced human agent contact by 15%, serves as a primary lever to protect margins against rising operational or inflationary costs.

Data

2025 Financial Performance Trends

Airbnb's revenue growth has stabilized at approximately 10% following the introduction of new tariffs in April 2025, with management guiding toward a potential slowdown in the final quarter of the year.

(Macy's ($M), except percentages)

Note: 4Q25E represents the midpoint of company guidance. Revenue growth for 1Q25 is adjusted for FX and calendar effects. Source: 1Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary, 2Q-2025 Earnings Call Summary, 3Q-2025 Shareholder Letter, Marvin Labs

Sources

Tariffs are likely to hurt travel demand due to a weaker economic outlook, which had already been evidenced by a recent softening in US consumer sentiment.

Management expects moderation in nights and experiences growth in Q2 versus Q1, influenced primarily by softening U.S. demand due to economic concerns.

Revenue derived from foreign travelers to the U.S. constitutes an immaterial portion of the overall revenue mix, indicating minimal exposure to international inbound travel disruptions.

Analysis

The introduction of U.S. tariffs in April 2025, referred to by analysts and management as "Liberation Day" tariffs, created significant market uncertainty that negatively impacted Check Point's performance in the first half of 2025. Management confirmed that 2Q2025 was particularly challenging, characterized by a deceleration in demand as customers paused spending to evaluate the implications of the new trade policies. This uncertainty led to approximately 3% of total billings, or roughly $20.2M, slipping from 2Q2025 into 3Q2025.

For FY2026, the company expects a continued headwind to profitability driven by rising component and raw material costs. Specifically, management guided to a 100bps (1 point) reduction in gross margin for the full year 2026 due to increased pricing for memory and other hardware components. Based on the midpoint of FY2026 revenue guidance of $2.89B, this margin headwind represents an estimated $28.9M impact on profitability. Most of this impact is expected to manifest in the second half of 2026 as the company exhausts its current inventory buffer.

Check Point has taken proactive steps to mitigate these tariff-related costs through pricing adjustments. Effective January 1, 2026, the company implemented a 5% price increase across its hardware product portfolio. Management indicated that they will continue to monitor supply and pricing dynamics throughout the year and may consider additional pricing actions if raw material costs continue to escalate. Furthermore, the company's strategic shift toward higher-margin software subscription services—expected to grow between 10% and 14% in 2026—serves as a structural offset to the hardware-related cost pressures.

Data

Estimated Tariff Impacts and Mitigation (FY2026)

Source: Transcript FY-2025, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Revenue Impact (Historic): $20M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $29M

Sources

I think the first half for security was a little challenging. We had Liberation Day. There was a lot of uncertainty... I think, again, I think the first half was more challenging, mainly Q2, I think. You mentioned the deceleration there. So definitely it was more uncertainty in the market.

We all know the memory price increase... it is expected to have an impact also on our gross margin in 2026. We estimated this impact to be approximately 1 point for the full year.

The product price increase that we have effectively from 1/1/2026 of 5%, [is] expect[ed] to support our product growth primarily from the second quarter of 2026.

Analysis

Zoetis (ZTS) has faced manageable headwinds from U.S. tariffs enacted in early 2025, primarily affecting its livestock and diagnostics segments. These tariffs, which align with the timeline of reciprocal and "Liberation Day" trade actions, were estimated to create a net headwind of approximately $20M to FY2025 adjusted net income as of the company's 1Q2025 guidance update in May 2025. By 2Q2025, management noted the impact was "slightly higher" than the initial $20M estimate but maintained that the company could absorb these costs through internal efficiencies and mitigation strategies.

The company's exposure is concentrated in the import of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) from China for certain livestock products, as well as imported diagnostics equipment and veterinary accessories. Zoetis is uniquely positioned to weather these trade tensions due to its significant U.S. manufacturing presence. Approximately 60% of its products are manufactured in the U.S., making the company a net exporter. Consequently, management has identified retaliatory tariffs in international markets—particularly Europe, which is a major export destination—as a more significant potential risk than direct U.S. import duties on finished companion animal goods.

Mitigation strategies employed by Zoetis include tactical inventory shifts to delay cost impacts, leveraging its diversified global manufacturing network to dual-source materials, and strategic pricing adjustments. For FY2026, the company's guidance assumes the currently enacted tariffs are embedded in its financial baseline, though it does not account for the impact of potential future tariffs or further retaliatory actions. Management continues to monitor the fluid geopolitical environment, relying on its innovation-led model and geographic diversity to maintain its long-term growth trajectory despite these incremental costs.

Data

Tariff Impact on FY2025 Guidance

The table below summarizes the net tariff headwind and its inclusion in the company's financial guidance during 2025.

Source: Transcript 1Q-2025, Transcript 2Q-2025

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $20M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $20M

Sources

In terms of tariffs, net of mitigations, we're calling about $20mn of headwind that we're putting here.... Primarily from imports related to APIs for a few of our livestock products coming from China, and then some impact from a few of our diagnostics products.

The impact of currently enacted and assumptions on announced tariffs on our business is slightly higher than our estimate as of our May guidance update. However, we feel we can absorb the incremental impact for the year.

We export more out of the U.S. than we import into the U.S. Particularly when you think about companion animal, the vast majority of our sales are actually produced in the U.S. ... our exposure is really likely more from retaliatory tariffs from other jurisdictions.

Analysis

American Electric Power estimates minimal direct exposure to the April 2025 "Liberation Day" tariffs, primarily due to proactive supply chain management and its scale as the nation's largest electric transmission system operator. The company initially estimated a 0.3% direct tariff exposure on its $54B base capital plan for the 2025-2029 period, equating to approximately $162M in potential cost headwinds. As of early 2026, AEP's five-year capital plan has expanded to $72B for 2026-2030, which would imply a total exposure of roughly $216M if the previously stated exposure rate remains consistent.

Management has emphasized that their size and unmatched scale in 765 kV transmission development allow them to effectively mitigate supply chain risks. Specifically, AEP has leveraged strategic partnerships, such as its long-term agreement with Quanta Services, to secure critical resources and equipment well ahead of scheduled construction. This "pre-buying" strategy and focus on operational excellence are designed to buffer the company against inflationary pressures and tariff-related cost increases for essential components like high-voltage transformers and conductors.

Despite the introduction of universal and reciprocal tariffs, AEP continues to see record-breaking load growth across its service territory, driven by hyperscalers and data centers in Texas, Ohio, Indiana, and Oklahoma. The company reported that these tariffs have not been a detriment to its economic growth or investment trajectory through late 2025. Furthermore, the diversity of AEP's customer base—including significant commitments from well-capitalized industrial and technology firms—provides additional resilience for the capital plan against varied trade-related economic scenarios.

Data

AEP Direct Tariff Exposure Summary

Source: Transcript 1Q-2025, Transcript FY-2025, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $162M–$216M

Sources

Specifically related to current planned tariffs, we estimate that the direct tariff exposure, on our $54bn base capital plan, for 2025 to 2029 is minimal at approximately 0.3%.

We are operating in an environment and time when scale matters more than ever, and we continue to leverage our size to mitigate supply chain risk and focus on having the resources necessary to meet this massive system demand and investment opportunity.

This diversity reassures us that the demand behind our capital plan is solid and can hold up across several different economic environments, including those with tariff impacts that we may find ourselves in over the next several years.

Analysis

Exelon (EXC) estimated that the gross impact of U.S. reciprocal and "Liberation Day" tariffs would be approximately 1.5% of its four-year capital and O&M investment plan before any mitigating efforts. Based on the company's updated 2026-2029 capital plan of $41.3B and approximately $22B in projected O&M, this translates to a potential gross headwind of roughly $950M over the four-year period. Management indicated that the majority of this impact would fall on capital investments rather than operational expenses.

The company's primary defense against tariff-related costs is its high level of domestic sourcing, with approximately 90% of supplies obtained within the United States. This domestic orientation significantly limits direct exposure to import duties. Additionally, Exelon noted that the financial impact would be delayed due to current inventory levels and the long lead time requirements of its infrastructure projects, which provide a buffer against immediate price volatility.

Exelon's management expressed confidence in their ability to manage tariff-related headwinds through several channels. The company leverages its significant size and scale to optimize procurement and employs a "culture of cost discipline" to offset inflationary pressures. As a regulated utility, Exelon's earnings are relatively insulated, with nearly 90% of its rate base covered by established recovery mechanisms. While higher capital costs could increase the company's rate base and potentially lead to higher long-term earnings if approved by regulators, management's primary focus remains on customer affordability and maintaining bills at 19%–20% below national averages.

Mitigation efforts include supply chain diversification and leveraging the company's deconcentrated investment plan to adjust project timing if necessary. To date, the company has not reported any material net impact on its 2025 financial results, as inventory and long-lead contracts effectively deferred the immediate costs. The company maintains its 5%–7% annualized adjusted operating earnings growth target through 2029, suggesting that tariff impacts are expected to be fully manageable within its existing financial guidance. (1Q-2025 Earnings Call Transcript, Annual Report FY-2025)

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Note: Gross impact is before mitigation efforts and primarily affects capital. Source: 1Q-2025 Earnings Call Transcript, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $0
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $950M

Sources

With approximately 90% of our supplies sourced domestically, we have estimated the impact to be around 1.5% of our four-year capital and O&M investment plan before any mitigating efforts, with the majority impacting capital.

The impacts would also be delayed as a result of our inventory levels and long lead time requirements.

With our size, scale, and deconcentrated investment plan and the culture of cost discipline, we expect to be able to manage any tariff-related impacts, highlighting the value of Exelon's platform.

Analysis

Siemens AG's exposure to the U.S. "Liberation Day" and reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025 is primarily mitigated by its extensive localized footprint in the United States. Management noted that approximately 80% of the U.S. cost base for its core industrial businesses—Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, and Mobility—is sourced from North America, with the vast majority originating within the U.S. itself. This local production strategy, supported by a workforce of 40,000 U.S. employees, cushions the direct impact of import tariffs on these segments.

The most significant quantifiable profit headwind was identified at Siemens Healthineers, which is consolidated within Siemens AG's results. In May 2025, the company disclosed a projected profit headwind of €200M to €300M for Healthineers due to the new tariff regime. Additionally, Siemens Energy—a strategic investment for Siemens AG—guided for tariff-related losses in the "low triple-digit million-euro range" for fiscal year 2026. While the core industrial businesses reported "limited net profit impact" for fiscal 2025, they observed customer hesitancy and slowed decision-making in April 2025 as a direct result of policy uncertainty.

Beyond direct tariff duties, Siemens is navigating substantial secondary impacts from currency volatility and macroeconomic shifts linked to trade tensions. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, the company reported a "massive" currency translation headwind, including a 110bps hit to Digital Industries' margin and a 60bps impact on Smart Infrastructure. For the full fiscal year 2026, Siemens expects currency translation—largely driven by the strengthening U.S. Dollar—to reduce earnings per share (EPS) by an estimated €0.70 to €0.80.

To offset these pressures, Siemens is employing a "net positive economic equation" strategy, which prioritizes proactive price adjustments and internal productivity gains. The company is also actively rebalancing sourcing and production capacities to further insulate its global supply chain from trade disruptions. Despite these headwinds, Siemens raised its fiscal 2026 EPS guidance in February 2026, citing resilient industrial demand, particularly in the U.S. data center and cloud infrastructure markets.

Data

Estimated and Observed Financial Impacts Related to Tariffs (€M, unless noted)

Source: Transcript 2Q-2025, Transcript 1Q-2026, Capital.com

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): €200M–€300M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): €100M–€300M

Sources

As Siemens Healthineers disclosed last week, they face significant headwinds on profits of around EUR €200mn 300mn.

Based on our assessment and including mitigation actions, we see for our DI, SI, and Mobility businesses a limited net profit impact in fiscal year 2025. Around 80% of their US cost base stems from North America.

The exchange rate impact is massive... DI was hit by 110 basis points in the first quarter... If you add back this EUR €0.7 0.80 in EPS, that will be only lost by translation of US dollar.

Analysis

Motorola Solutions has been managing the impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in 2025, which primarily affect its hardware manufacturing and supply chain. The company first observed a direct impact in late 2Q 2025 and estimated a total cost headwind of approximately $80M for the second half of 2025. Despite this pressure, the company maintained its full-year financial guidance and successfully expanded its non-GAAP operating margins by 130bps for the full year 2025, reaching a record 30.3% (Transcript FY-2025).

To mitigate the financial impact of these tariffs, the company has implemented a combination of strategic pricing and supply chain adjustments. Management highlighted the use of surgical price increases across its product portfolio and internal cost management to offset higher input costs. On the operational side, the company has focused on qualifying multiple production lines for its products and carrying higher inventory levels to provide flexibility in response to shifting trade policies and to minimize disruptions to customer deliveries (Transcript 2Q-2025).

For 2026, Motorola Solutions expects an additional incremental tariff headwind of approximately $60M, most of which is anticipated to materialize in the first half of the year. The company's 2026 guidance accounts for these costs, with management targeting another 100bps of operating margin expansion for the full year. This confidence is supported by strong demand for its mission-critical technologies and a record backlog of $15.7B, which provides significant visibility and leverage to overcome continued tariff-related cost pressures (Transcript FY-2025).

Data

(Macy's ($M))

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs

Financial Impact

• Cost Impact (Historic): $80M
• Cost Impact (Forward-Looking): $60M

Sources

2025 and the margin expansion we saw of 120, 130 basis points at OE included a tariff headwind, which for 2025 was in the second half. Now, as we enter 2026, we plan for an incremental tariff, which will present itself in the first half. And that's about $60mn.

We are planning for increases. The costs have gone up on parts of our portfolio... we're leaning in on public safety and our customer base being critical, inventory, and to some extent, planning for surgical price increases across the portfolio as well.

We are estimating that this year's tariff impact will be about $80mn, down from the $100mn. That's in part due to mitigations and other things that have changed. We began seeing the tariff impact in late Q2. Most of that $80mn is in front of us in the second half.

Analysis

Equinix has reported a minimal direct impact from the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, commonly known as the "Liberation Day" or reciprocal tariffs. During the 1Q25 earnings cycle, management explicitly stated that while the company was monitoring the situation, there was no immediate material financial headwind to its core business operations. The company’s direct exposure to the tariffs—which primarily targeted imported goods such as electronics and industrial components—was mitigated by the fact that many of its data center infrastructure components were already part of a globally diversified supply chain.

Despite the limited direct impact, Equinix identified tariffs as a significant concern for its customer base. The company noted that the effects were most acutely felt in specific industries where many of its customers operate, including consumer goods, transportation, energy, and materials. Because Equinix’s revenue is driven by the demand for colocation and interconnection from these enterprises, any broader economic slowdown or margin pressure on its customers could indirectly affect Equinix through delayed deployments or shifts in regional infrastructure spending.

To mitigate these pressures, Equinix leverages its globally distributed model, which allows it to shift operational focus or sourcing strategies across its 280 data centers in 77 markets. The company also employs advanced supply chain strategies, such as committing to future purchases of data center equipment well ahead of schedule, to secure pricing and availability of critical components that might otherwise be subject to tariff-related delays or cost increases. These actions have allowed the company to maintain its development projects, including 58 major projects currently underway, without significant disruption.

Throughout the remainder of 2025 and into early 2026, Equinix's financial disclosures remained focused on record bookings and the accelerating demand for AI-ready infrastructure rather than tariff-related headwinds. The company delivered $1.6B in annualized gross bookings for FY2025, a 27% increase year-over-year, suggesting that the broader demand environment for digital infrastructure and AI workloads significantly outweighed any negative impacts from the 2025 trade policies. As of February 2026, the company has not quantified any specific net loss in revenue or increase in costs attributable to these tariffs.

Sources

We have seen minimal impact from tariffs on our business directly in the immediate term.

However, they are a concern for many of our customers and therefore are also a concern for us.

Our globally distributed model also helps us mitigate the impacts of tariff pressures and geopolitical complexities.

Analysis

Cisco has largely mitigated the direct financial impact of the U.S. reciprocal tariffs introduced in April 2025 through supply chain agility and broad product exemptions. Following the initial announcement on April 2, 2025, management originally guided for a significant cost headwind in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 by reflecting the full cost of the tariffs without mitigation. However, subsequent exemptions for semiconductors and certain electronic components, which are core to Cisco’s networking and security hardware, significantly reduced the realized impact. Management described the ultimate effect on actual results as small and more favorable than their original internal estimates.

For fiscal 2026, Cisco’s financial guidance continues to assume that current trade policies and exemptions remain in effect. While the company has seen gross margin contraction of 120bps year-over-year in the first half of fiscal 2026, this decline is attributed primarily to product mix and elevated memory costs rather than tariff-related duties. The shift toward higher-volume AI infrastructure solutions for hyperscale customers carries a lower margin profile, which has emerged as the primary headwind for the company's profitability.

Beyond direct costs, Cisco has identified potential demand-side benefits stemming from U.S. trade policy. Management noted that the onshoring of manufacturing and the resulting domestic capital investments are driving sustained double-digit order growth in Cisco’s industrial IoT and core networking portfolios. The company views this as a multi-year opportunity as organizations modernize their infrastructure to support high-intensity AI workloads while complying with evolving domestic production requirements.

Cisco maintains a world-class supply chain and a globally diversified manufacturing base, which allows for flexibility in sourcing to minimize exposure to country-specific reciprocal rates. While the company operates in a complex trade environment, its ability to secure component exemptions and adjust its sourcing strategy has effectively neutralized the tariffs as a material headwind to its consolidated financial performance.

Data

Fiscal 2026 Margin Bridge Components

Based on Three Months Ended January 24, 2026

Source: Quarterly Report 2Q-2026

Sources

Our Q3 and fiscal year 2026 guide assumes current tariffs and exemptions remain in place through the end of fiscal 2026. These assumptions remain unchanged from prior guidance.

The impact of tariffs on our gross margin was favorable to what was estimated in the guidance we provided last quarter... total gross margin included a small impact from tariffs.

While we are exposed to new and proposed tariffs and other trade policies, the extent of such exposure is uncertain but could be significant if the exposure remains and we are unable to mitigate it.

Analysis

McDonald's (MCD) has successfully mitigated the financial impact of the U.S. "Liberation Day" tariffs introduced in April 2025 by leveraging its decentralized supply chain and heavily franchised business model. While management initially stated in early 2025 that their financial targets did not account for potential new tariffs, they explicitly confirmed by the third quarter of the year that their reaffirmed guidance factored in the "expected impacts from tariffs currently in place" (3Q-2025 Transcript). The company achieved its full-year 2025 operating margin targets despite these headwinds, reporting an adjusted operating margin of 46.9%, an expansion over the prior year.

The company's resilience to broad-based import duties is primarily due to its localized sourcing strategy, where the vast majority of food and paper supplies in major markets are procured within the region. Additionally, because approximately 95% of McDonald's restaurants are franchised, the direct impact of commodity price increases is borne by independent owner-operators rather than the corporation (3Q-2025 Quarterly Report). This structure allows McDonald's to maintain stable royalty and rent revenue streams, provided it can sustain guest counts through the inflationary environment.

To offset the potential for demand destruction caused by tariff-driven price increases, McDonald's has prioritized aggressive value platforms. The company launched the "McValue" program and relaunched "Extra Value Meals" in late 2025 to improve value perceptions, particularly among lower-income consumers who are most sensitive to price volatility. These initiatives, supported by over $75M in corporate co-investments in the fourth quarter of 2025 alone, were critical in maintaining positive comparable guest count gaps relative to competitors during the initial implementation of the tariffs.

Despite the temporary reimposition of a 10% tariff in February 2026 following a Supreme Court ruling, McDonald's issued 2026 guidance that anticipates further operating margin expansion into the mid-to-high 40% range (FY-2025 Transcript). The company's ability to drive margin accretion while incorporating tariff impacts into its baseline reflects the effectiveness of its global scale and supply chain partnerships in neutralizing net financial headwinds. Management continues to monitor the "dynamic competitive landscape" but remains confident in its ability to outperform in any operating environment.

Data

Source: Company filings, Marvin Labs. Margin figures are adjusted. FY24A inflation reflects peaks before April 2025 tariffs.

Sources

We're on track to deliver our financial targets for the year, which include the expected impacts from tariffs currently in place.

Our financial targets for 2025 reflect the benefit of these initiatives... but does not include any impact from potential new tariffs.

Our 2026 target reflects... operating margin to be in the mid- to high-40% range and to expand from our 46.9% adjusted operating margin in 2025.

Analysis

TotalEnergies faces moderate headwinds from the U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025, with the primary impact concentrated in its Integrated Power (renewables) segment and new project sanctioning in the United States. Management has stated that existing large-scale projects, such as trains 1-3 of the Rio Grande LNG project, are not affected by the new duties as they were secured under previous contracts. However, the company has put certain future investments, particularly in offshore wind, into a "sleeping mode" due to the combined effect of higher costs and regulatory uncertainty.

The most direct financial impact noted by the company is a decline in expected returns for specific U.S. renewable projects. Management cited one solar project where returns dropped from approximately 12% to under 10% following the tariff implementation, prompting a "pause" on that development. For projects that proceed, TotalEnergies is actively diversifying its supply chain to mitigate costs, such as replacing a Chinese supplier with a Vietnamese provider for a U.S. solar project. The company is also monitoring potential taxes on non-U.S.-built LNG vessels, given that a significant portion of the global fleet is constructed in China.

To offset the negative impacts on its U.S. investment case, the company is looking toward potential mitigating factors from the same administration, specifically the possibility of lower corporate income taxes. Additionally, TotalEnergies is leveraging its integrated model by signing high-premium power purchase agreements (PPAs) with U.S. data centers, which helps bolster returns in the Integrated Power segment. Management has also launched a company-wide $12.5B cash-saving and resilience program for 2026 to strengthen its balance sheet against a more challenging macroeconomic environment.

Outside of the United States, TotalEnergies reports no significant impact from the April 2025 tariffs on its global projects. The company continues to prioritize "value over volume," asserting that it will only grow at a pace allowed by the global economic framework and will not overreact to trade policy shifts. Despite these headwinds, the company maintains its long-term guidance and reported a 120% reserve replacement rate for 2025, underscoring the resilience of its core oil and gas portfolio.

Data

U.S. Tariff Impact and Mitigation Metrics

Source: Transcript 1Q-2025, Transcript 2Q-2025, Transcript FY-2025

Sources

This project was more or less around 12%. With tariff, it's less than 10%. We say pause. We are not in a hurry. It's not volume, not of value.

There is one segment which has completely, we put into, I would say, a sleeping mode. It is offshore wind. This is completely sleeping now.

For TotalEnergies, projects outside the U.S. are not currently affected by tariffs. ... To be clear, it's not an issue.

No tariff impact data available.

Analysis