Hand-written analysis from the Marvin Labs equity research team. Independent commentary, not generated by an agent.
Capcom (9697.T)The half delivered 73% of the profit plan and PC share gave back its gain. After a 13% share fall, the price asks for about Capcom's weakest margin.
Micron Technology (MU)Floors or fixed prices cover about a quarter of Micron's revenue, and the price requires 34-40% EBIT margins to FY2035. The floor is untested until prices fall.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD),
Paramount Skydance (PSKY)A consent decree fixes Skydance's film output and cable bargaining to 2031. The 3.0x leverage promised for 2029 has to come from everything it leaves free.
Sony (6758.T),
Microsoft (MSFT),
Nintendo (7974.T),
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)Rockstar has reached more viewers than the guide needs buyers. What GTA VI converts by March depends on consoles Sony and Microsoft have made dearer this year.
Nike (NKE)Gross margin turned as guided and the outlook fell. Sportswear, Jordan and China reset beyond FY2027, and the price asks for a 10.1% margin from FY2028.
Micron Technology (MU)Guidance lifted the revenue base and cut the margin the price requires to 42-48%. The floor the thesis rests on has yet to be tested.
Spotify (SPOT)Gross margin reached a record 33.4%. One mechanism is an audiobook bundle carrying €473M of disputed royalty exposure, on which a 1 September ruling went mainly Spotify's way.
CD Projekt (CDR.WA)Revenue up 23% on an IP licensing line management will not guide for H2. The Witcher 4 confirmed for 2028, and Stage 2 of the incentive plan written down.
Capcom (9697.T)Half the full-year profit plan arrived in one quarter and the plan did not move. The conversion test the thesis rests on is censored, not passed.
Nintendo (7974.T)Margin recovery is real, but tariffs and currency drove roughly 82% of the operating profit rise. Switch 2's share of platform software fell to its weakest.
Constellation Energy (CEG)The PTC floor indexes up and 920MW of PPAs are signed, but contract pricing is undisclosed by policy and the quarter turned on three unwatched variables.
Glencore (GLEN.L)Adjusted EBITDA rose 86% to $10.1bn. Glencore's own bridge puts +$3.8bn into price against a +$2.7bn Industrial move, with cost and FX taking $1.5bn back.
Unity Software (U)Unity beat every guided line, flipped to net cash and pulled GAAP profitability into 3Q26. Acquisition accounting had already lowered the bar it is about to clear.
AMD (AMD)Record revenue and Helios cleared early. The beat and second-half raise came from EPYC, which no condition tracks. Demonstrated economics still need the ramp.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY),Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)Operating logic intact but shareholder economics weakened. The close slips into 2027, with the share price now below the equity subscription's pricing floor.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)Launch date affirmed, cost ceiling intact. The recurring floor slipped 1%, and the pre-order book that dominates the story sits nowhere on the balance sheet.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)Revenue accelerated to 93% as the rate embedded in the price fell to 34.4%. One condition lost its threshold metric, another saw SBC compression reverse.
Sony (6758.T)Portfolio earnings held. The peer discount compressed before the operating conditions were proven, while the results were flattered by currency and a refund.
Apple (AAPL)Demand records across every geography and free cash flow at a high. The margin now turns on a component cost the condition set never contained.
Shell (SHEL.L)Adjusted Earnings rose $2.9bn sequentially to $9.8bn. Shell's own segment bridges show prices and margins contributing $2.7bn of that and tax $0.7bn, while volume and mix subtracted $1.0bn.
Roblox (RBLX)Payer growth collapsed from 52% to 15% and infrastructure leverage inverted at its first test. Bookings +8%, then guided down 14-18%.
Microsoft (MSFT)Capacity is converting fast. Azure at 43%, 88 new datacentres, dock-to-live down by half. Whether it converts at sufficient returns is the open question.
Volkswagen (VOW3.DE)H1 reported margin of 3.75% sits below the 4.0% guidance floor, and the segments that held their earnings were cushioned by falling provisions.
Ubisoft (UBI.PA)A slight beat on a light slate, guidance reaffirmed. The group trades far below its marked Vantage stake alone, and execution is the only bridge.
