Analysis
ASML has primarily addressed the impact of U.S. tariffs introduced in April 2025—including the 20% "Liberation Day" tariffs on EU products—by passing the associated costs through to its customers. The company identified four direct channels for tariff exposure: the export of new lithography systems to the United States, parts for U.S.-based manufacturing, parts for field service operations, and potential reciprocal tariffs on U.S. components imported into the Netherlands. Management maintained that ASML should not bear the cost burden of these trade measures, asserting that price adjustments would be the primary tool to protect margins.
While systems and manufacturing parts costs are more easily transferred to the value chain, the company noted that passing through costs for field service parts is more complex due to existing long-term service contracts. CFO Roger Dassen indicated a potential "window" or delay before these specific costs could be fully recovered from customers. Despite these challenges, the actual impact in 2025 was described as less negative than initially feared. The company's full-year 2025 gross margin of 52.8% landed at the high end of its guided range, suggesting that mitigation efforts and strong demand for AI-related capacity expansion largely offset the direct tariff headwinds.
Looking forward, tariffs remain a significant source of uncertainty, contributing to a wider-than-usual guidance range for 2026. ASML's 2026 revenue guidance of €34B to €39B and gross margin guidance of 51% to 53% are designed to accommodate a variety of outcomes related to trade policy and export controls. Management continues to monitor the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape, noting that while the direct financial impact has been manageable thus far, the broader indirect effects on global semiconductor demand and supply chain dynamics remain unpredictable.
Data
| Metric | FY2024A | FY2025A | FY2026E |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | €28.3B | €32.7B | €34.0B - €39.0B |
| Gross Margin (%) | 51.3% | 52.8% | 51.0% - 53.0% |
| Net Income | €7.8B | €9.6B | -- |
Source: Transcript FY-2025, Transcript 2Q-2025, Transcript 1Q-2025, Marvin Labs. Note: FY2024A net income and gross margin are derived from reported figures.
Sources
We do believe that that burden should be passed on to the next element in the value chain. I think in good English, I think that's called the customer, right?
There might be a bit of a window before we're really able to pass on in full the impact that that would have on our cost... particularly for parts that we need in the United States for the service to our customers.
The level of uncertainty is increasing, mostly due to macroeconomic and geopolitics consideration and that's include of course tariff.